Value
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
IEP · Why this verdict
Why Icahn Enterprises L.P. - Deposi (IEP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The units price at a deep discount on earnings-based multiples (forward P/E of 9.0x, near-zero PEG), yet the discount is explained by chronically impaired operating metrics, no competitive moat, and two earnings misses in the three most recently reported quarters; price momentum has also failed its minimum threshold and high short interest of 13% reflects broad market skepticism about whether the apparent cheapness translates into investable value.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The last three quarters with reported actuals produced two significant misses — including one where earnings undershot the estimate by more than 800% — and the reported dividend yield appears to be multiples of the unit price itself, a level that the current earnings trajectory almost certainly cannot support. Earnings | Earnings print above consensus for two consecutive quarters and the distribution is explicitly reset to a level covered by reported operating cash flow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA single large asset-disposal event or realized gain from the investment portfolio could temporarily support the distribution without reflecting structural operational improvement, masking the deeper earnings fragility for multiple quarters. | ||
With roughly 83% of the portfolio concentrated in a single energy segment, the partnership's cash flows are highly exposed to commodity-price cycles and energy-sector disruptions, leaving little diversification to buffer a downturn in that business. Bear case | Energy segment revenue concentration falls below 65% of the total portfolio within four quarters as other segments grow or the portfolio is repositioned. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA sustained rise in energy prices could produce outsized cash generation from the concentrated position, rewarding holders who maintained exposure through the cycle precisely because of that concentration. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.0x and a near-zero PEG ratio, the units screen as inexpensively valued; however, operating margins are negligible, returns on assets approach zero, and analysts note no discernible competitive moat — circumstances suggesting the low multiple reflects structurally depressed earning power rather than market mispricing. Valuation breakdown | Operating margin turns positive and return on assets rises above 2% over the next four quarters, demonstrating that durable earnings power underlies the cheap multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterIf significant net asset value in the investment portfolio materially exceeds the unit price, an earnings-based valuation framework would systematically understate intrinsic value regardless of operating margin — making the low multiple a poor guide to actual worth. | ||
Price momentum has deteriorated below the minimum level for a healthy trend, volume distribution is negative (on-balance volume is falling), and short interest has climbed to 13% of the float — together signaling that active sellers significantly outnumber buyers at current price levels. Warnings | On-balance volume turns to net accumulation and RSI climbs above 50 for six consecutive weeks, reflecting a genuine shift in supply-demand balance. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI has reached 38, a level that can precede short-term mean-reversion bounces; concentrated short interest could accelerate a near-term rally if any positive catalyst materializes, temporarily reversing the momentum signal without any fundamental improvement. | ||
The last three quarters with reported actuals produced two significant misses — including one where earnings undershot the estimate by more than 800% — and the reported dividend yield appears to be multiples of the unit price itself, a level that the current earnings trajectory almost certainly cannot support.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings print above consensus for two consecutive quarters and the distribution is explicitly reset to a level covered by reported operating cash flow.
CounterA single large asset-disposal event or realized gain from the investment portfolio could temporarily support the distribution without reflecting structural operational improvement, masking the deeper earnings fragility for multiple quarters.
With roughly 83% of the portfolio concentrated in a single energy segment, the partnership's cash flows are highly exposed to commodity-price cycles and energy-sector disruptions, leaving little diversification to buffer a downturn in that business.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Energy segment revenue concentration falls below 65% of the total portfolio within four quarters as other segments grow or the portfolio is repositioned.
CounterA sustained rise in energy prices could produce outsized cash generation from the concentrated position, rewarding holders who maintained exposure through the cycle precisely because of that concentration.
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.0x and a near-zero PEG ratio, the units screen as inexpensively valued; however, operating margins are negligible, returns on assets approach zero, and analysts note no discernible competitive moat — circumstances suggesting the low multiple reflects structurally depressed earning power rather than market mispricing.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margin turns positive and return on assets rises above 2% over the next four quarters, demonstrating that durable earnings power underlies the cheap multiple.
CounterIf significant net asset value in the investment portfolio materially exceeds the unit price, an earnings-based valuation framework would systematically understate intrinsic value regardless of operating margin — making the low multiple a poor guide to actual worth.
Price momentum has deteriorated below the minimum level for a healthy trend, volume distribution is negative (on-balance volume is falling), and short interest has climbed to 13% of the float — together signaling that active sellers significantly outnumber buyers at current price levels.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- On-balance volume turns to net accumulation and RSI climbs above 50 for six consecutive weeks, reflecting a genuine shift in supply-demand balance.
CounterRSI has reached 38, a level that can precede short-term mean-reversion bounces; concentrated short interest could accelerate a near-term rally if any positive catalyst materializes, temporarily reversing the momentum signal without any fundamental improvement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 7.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 8.4 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 2.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
4.40
Upside
+32.6%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Growth at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of 4.40.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Value at 8.2, and Momentum at 6.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Technical at 3.2, and Peer rank at 3.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Multiples Impaired Quality
Trip ifGross margin turns positive and return on assets exceeds 2% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Energy Segment Concentration Risk
Trip ifEnergy segment revenue concentration falls below 65% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Momentum Failure Rising Short Interest
Trip ifRSI rises above 55 and on-balance volume sustains net accumulation for 8 consecutive weeks.
- P4Earnings Volatility Unsupported Yield
Trip ifEPS exceeds $0.10 for 2 consecutive reported quarters.