Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.84
IBN · Why this verdict
Why ICICI Bank (IBN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward earnings multiple of 14.6x and a PEG ratio of 1.73, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth profile, with analyst consensus projecting roughly 27% upside to price targets. Valuation breakdown | The stock closes the approximately 8% gap to the $30.07 take-profit level over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple alone is not a catalyst — inexpensive stocks in confirmed downtrends can remain cheap for extended periods if the underlying growth rate decelerates, which would compress the multiple further. | ||
Earnings grew 67% year-over-year, placing this bank among the growth leaders in its peer group and indicating the business is generating meaningful operating leverage at scale. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year earnings growth remains above 20% in each of the next two reported quarters, sustaining the above-peer growth trajectory. | →Stable |
| CounterA growth rate of this magnitude is difficult to sustain; any moderation toward industry-average levels would reprice the stock closer to a value multiple and limit further appreciation. | ||
Three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises, with an average beat of approximately 2.4%, reflecting a pattern of consistently delivering ahead of consensus expectations. Earnings | The next two quarterly reports continue to show positive earnings surprises, keeping the beat rate at or above 75% over a rolling four-quarter window. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarterly miss of -8.67% was the sharpest reversal in the observed window, and with guidance unknown the execution risk for the upcoming quarter remains material. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average declining at approximately 3.4% per month, reflecting a confirmed long-term downtrend that represents a meaningful timing risk for new buyers. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within two months, signaling that selling pressure is abating and the technical overhang is resolving. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is rising, indicating accumulation beneath the surface, and MACD momentum is improving — technical patterns consistent with a trend reversal ahead of price confirmation. | ||
At a forward earnings multiple of 14.6x and a PEG ratio of 1.73, the stock screens as attractively valued relative to its growth profile, with analyst consensus projecting roughly 27% upside to price targets.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock closes the approximately 8% gap to the $30.07 take-profit level over the next 12 months as the valuation discount narrows.
CounterA low multiple alone is not a catalyst — inexpensive stocks in confirmed downtrends can remain cheap for extended periods if the underlying growth rate decelerates, which would compress the multiple further.
Earnings grew 67% year-over-year, placing this bank among the growth leaders in its peer group and indicating the business is generating meaningful operating leverage at scale.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year earnings growth remains above 20% in each of the next two reported quarters, sustaining the above-peer growth trajectory.
CounterA growth rate of this magnitude is difficult to sustain; any moderation toward industry-average levels would reprice the stock closer to a value multiple and limit further appreciation.
Three of the last four quarters delivered positive earnings surprises, with an average beat of approximately 2.4%, reflecting a pattern of consistently delivering ahead of consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next two quarterly reports continue to show positive earnings surprises, keeping the beat rate at or above 75% over a rolling four-quarter window.
CounterThe most recent quarterly miss of -8.67% was the sharpest reversal in the observed window, and with guidance unknown the execution risk for the upcoming quarter remains material.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average declining at approximately 3.4% per month, reflecting a confirmed long-term downtrend that represents a meaningful timing risk for new buyers.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns flat or positive within two months, signaling that selling pressure is abating and the technical overhang is resolving.
CounterOn-balance volume is rising, indicating accumulation beneath the surface, and MACD momentum is improving — technical patterns consistent with a trend reversal ahead of price confirmation.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ICICI Bank's attractive forward valuation and strong year-over-year earnings growth offer a credible re-rating story, but the stock's confirmed long-term downtrend and thin risk/reward geometry at current levels argue for patience before adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 25%
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 67% YoY
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $3,003,985 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 8.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 84.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.15
Upside
+2.0%
Downside
13.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0; weakest: Technical at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, Value at 6.9, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Momentum at 4.7, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 20x from the current 14.6x, eliminating the valuation discount.
- P3Strong Earnings Growth Profile
Trip ifYear-over-year earnings growth falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Technical Overhang
Trip ifPrice crosses above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive for 20 consecutive trading days.