Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
IART · Why this verdict
Why Integra LifeSciences Holdings C (IART) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
IART combines a perfect earnings-beat streak and cheap valuation with limited remaining upside near its 52-week high, a leverage penalty, weak momentum, and elevated bearish options positioning, netting out to reducing rather than adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
IART has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last 4 quarters with a strong average surprise, and the engine flags this as a perfect beat-streak catalyst edge. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should continue into the upcoming earnings report in roughly a month. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith the analyst target already reached and the stock near its 52-week high, continued beats may already be priced in, limiting further upside even if the streak holds. | ||
IART screens as attractively valued with a low forward P/E and a low PEG ratio despite a strong growth profile. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated, and the multiple should expand toward peer norms if growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock trading near its 52-week high with limited remaining analyst-target upside suggests most of the cheap-valuation thesis may already be reflected in price. | ||
The analyst target has effectively been reached and the stock sits close to its 52-week high, with the engine's asymmetry gate failing as downside risk outweighs remaining upside. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again, or the analyst target should be revised meaningfully higher, for the risk-reward profile to improve. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA fifth consecutive earnings beat could prompt analysts to raise price targets, reopening upside room even from current levels. | ||
IART carries a leverage penalty from an elevated debt-to-equity ratio and failed the engine's momentum gate, with falling on-balance volume. Bear case | The momentum score should recover above the engine's threshold and the leverage penalty should ease as debt-to-equity improves. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score and solid current ratio suggest the balance sheet is fundamentally sound despite the leverage penalty. | ||
IART shows elevated bearish options positioning alongside a notable level of short interest. Key risks | The put/call ratio and short interest should decline if the earnings beat streak and cheap valuation attract more bullish positioning. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated short interest combined with a beat-heavy earnings history raises the risk of a short squeeze around the next earnings date. | ||
IART has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last 4 quarters with a strong average surprise, and the engine flags this as a perfect beat-streak catalyst edge.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue into the upcoming earnings report in roughly a month.
CounterWith the analyst target already reached and the stock near its 52-week high, continued beats may already be priced in, limiting further upside even if the streak holds.
IART screens as attractively valued with a low forward P/E and a low PEG ratio despite a strong growth profile.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated, and the multiple should expand toward peer norms if growth continues.
CounterA stock trading near its 52-week high with limited remaining analyst-target upside suggests most of the cheap-valuation thesis may already be reflected in price.
The analyst target has effectively been reached and the stock sits close to its 52-week high, with the engine's asymmetry gate failing as downside risk outweighs remaining upside.
Tripped→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again, or the analyst target should be revised meaningfully higher, for the risk-reward profile to improve.
CounterA fifth consecutive earnings beat could prompt analysts to raise price targets, reopening upside room even from current levels.
IART carries a leverage penalty from an elevated debt-to-equity ratio and failed the engine's momentum gate, with falling on-balance volume.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The momentum score should recover above the engine's threshold and the leverage penalty should ease as debt-to-equity improves.
CounterA strong Piotroski F-Score and solid current ratio suggest the balance sheet is fundamentally sound despite the leverage penalty.
IART shows elevated bearish options positioning alongside a notable level of short interest.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio and short interest should decline if the earnings beat streak and cheap valuation attract more bullish positioning.
CounterElevated short interest combined with a beat-heavy earnings history raises the risk of a short squeeze around the next earnings date.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.3 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 4%, FCF yield 4.7%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 10.0 |
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+32.6%)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 3.9 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 3.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸High IV: 89%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 32.6% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.48
Upside
-12.9%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.6<4.5 outcome against Catalyst at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of -1.48.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 8.5, Value at 7.6, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.7, Peer rank at 3.3, and Momentum at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe upcoming quarterly earnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5%, breaking the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Attractive Valuation Cheap Multiples
Trip ifPrice falls more than 15% without a corresponding cut to earnings estimates, showing the cheap multiple failed to re-rate.
- P3Limited Upside Near 52 Week HighTripped
Trip ifAnalyst price target is raised by more than 15%, or the asymmetry ratio turns positive above 0.5, reopening meaningful upside.
- P4Leverage Penalty And Weak Momentum
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 1.0 and momentum score rises above 4.5, resolving both concerns.
- P5Elevated Put Call And Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest falls below 5% of float and the put/call ratio drops below 0.7, easing the bearish positioning.