Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.28
IAC · Why this verdict
Why IAC (IAC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining at 12% year-over-year and the combined growth and profitability efficiency score is deeply negative at -11, indicating the business is shrinking faster than it is generating value for shareholders. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters and the growth efficiency score rises above 0. | →Stable |
| CounterDeclining revenue during a portfolio restructuring or asset-shedding phase can precede a leaner, higher-margin business; if the revenue base stabilizes on better-quality segments, future profitability could improve even before top-line growth recovers. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 6.89 — a highly elevated level — reflecting that options market participants are positioned overwhelmingly for downside protection rather than upside participation, a signal that sophisticated hedgers view near-term risk as asymmetrically to the downside. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 for 3 consecutive weeks, signaling that bearish hedging demand has materially normalized. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme put/call ratios can function as contrarian indicators: when everyone has hedged, there is less remaining supply for incremental sellers, and a positive catalyst could trigger a rapid unwind of bearish positioning that temporarily amplifies upside. | ||
A recent material 8-K filing exceeded the threshold that triggers a governance and disclosure risk flag, adding an unresolved risk layer on top of an already pressured fundamental picture. Engine gate (failed) | Material 8-K filings related to governance, legal, or regulatory matters equal 0 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the disclosure event has resolved without further escalation. | →Stable |
| CounterNot all material 8-K disclosures are negative — a restructuring announcement, asset sale, or strategic partnership filing at the same threshold level could be a positive catalyst rather than a risk, depending on the specific content. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates are trending downward, indicating that consensus has been revising its near-term profit expectations lower — a headwind that, combined with declining revenues, suggests the fundamental backdrop is deteriorating rather than stabilizing. Bear case | Analyst EPS estimates for the next 12 months revise upward for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a fundamental inflection. | →Stable |
| CounterDownward estimate revisions can overshoot the true decline; if operations stabilize sooner than analysts expect, a positive earnings surprise against a lowered bar could reset sentiment rapidly. | ||
Revenue is declining at 12% year-over-year and the combined growth and profitability efficiency score is deeply negative at -11, indicating the business is shrinking faster than it is generating value for shareholders.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters and the growth efficiency score rises above 0.
CounterDeclining revenue during a portfolio restructuring or asset-shedding phase can precede a leaner, higher-margin business; if the revenue base stabilizes on better-quality segments, future profitability could improve even before top-line growth recovers.
The put/call ratio stands at 6.89 — a highly elevated level — reflecting that options market participants are positioned overwhelmingly for downside protection rather than upside participation, a signal that sophisticated hedgers view near-term risk as asymmetrically to the downside.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio falls below 2.0 for 3 consecutive weeks, signaling that bearish hedging demand has materially normalized.
CounterExtreme put/call ratios can function as contrarian indicators: when everyone has hedged, there is less remaining supply for incremental sellers, and a positive catalyst could trigger a rapid unwind of bearish positioning that temporarily amplifies upside.
A recent material 8-K filing exceeded the threshold that triggers a governance and disclosure risk flag, adding an unresolved risk layer on top of an already pressured fundamental picture.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Material 8-K filings related to governance, legal, or regulatory matters equal 0 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the disclosure event has resolved without further escalation.
CounterNot all material 8-K disclosures are negative — a restructuring announcement, asset sale, or strategic partnership filing at the same threshold level could be a positive catalyst rather than a risk, depending on the specific content.
Analyst earnings estimates are trending downward, indicating that consensus has been revising its near-term profit expectations lower — a headwind that, combined with declining revenues, suggests the fundamental backdrop is deteriorating rather than stabilizing.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst EPS estimates for the next 12 months revise upward for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a fundamental inflection.
CounterDownward estimate revisions can overshoot the true decline; if operations stabilize sooner than analysts expect, a positive earnings surprise against a lowered bar could reset sentiment rapidly.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
IAC is navigating a 12% year-over-year revenue decline with a negative growth efficiency score, while facing heavily bearish options positioning, an elevated short interest of 19%, and a recent material disclosure that added a governance risk flag; the stock offers some potential upside to analyst consensus but current asymmetry falls short of the minimum threshold for a constructive position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 6.5 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -11 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -12%
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 9.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
1.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 2.4 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.0 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.5 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸High short interest: 19%
- ▸High IV: 83%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.04
Upside
+7.5%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.04 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Value at 6.6, and Technical at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4, and Quality at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Declining Revenue Growth Quality Failure
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Extreme Put Call Ratio Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 for 3 consecutive weeks.
- P3Material 8k Disclosure Governance Risk
Trip ifMaterial 8-K filings related to governance or legal matters fall below 1 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Earnings Estimates Trending Downward
Trip ifAnalyst EPS estimates for the next 12 months rise above the prior quarter's estimate for 2 consecutive quarters.