Value
6.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
HZO · Why this verdict
Why MarineMax, Inc. (FL) (HZO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality sits below the engine's floor, with no competitive moat and broader quality concerns flagged. Quality breakdown | The quality score should recover above the engine's minimum floor for the exit call to be invalidated. | →Stable |
| CounterA mid-range Piotroski F-Score, not deeply distressed, suggests the fundamental picture isn't uniformly weak. | ||
Revenue is declining at a double-digit rate, consistent with cyclical weakness in discretionary boat and marine retail spending. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stabilize or turn positive over the next few quarters for the deteriorating narrative to be challenged. | →Stable |
| CounterConsumer-cyclical demand for big-ticket discretionary items like boats can rebound quickly with improved consumer confidence or lower rates. | ||
HZO failed the engine's momentum gate, with falling on-balance volume even as price sits above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | The momentum score should climb back above the engine's threshold within 12 months for the technical picture to improve. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice remaining above the 200-day moving average despite falling volume could reflect consolidation rather than an imminent breakdown. | ||
The asymmetry ratio is negative, with the analyst target already reached and downside risk outweighing the remaining upside. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again for the risk-reward profile to favor holding or adding. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated options positioning combined with high short interest could set up a short squeeze if sentiment reverses. | ||
HZO has posted an even split of beats and misses over the last 4 quarters with a negative average surprise, while short interest and the put/call ratio sit at elevated levels. Key risks | Earnings surprises should turn consistently positive and short interest should decline for sentiment to meaningfully improve. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest combined with any earnings beat could trigger outsized short covering given the elevated bearish positioning already in place. | ||
Quality sits below the engine's floor, with no competitive moat and broader quality concerns flagged.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score should recover above the engine's minimum floor for the exit call to be invalidated.
CounterA mid-range Piotroski F-Score, not deeply distressed, suggests the fundamental picture isn't uniformly weak.
Revenue is declining at a double-digit rate, consistent with cyclical weakness in discretionary boat and marine retail spending.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stabilize or turn positive over the next few quarters for the deteriorating narrative to be challenged.
CounterConsumer-cyclical demand for big-ticket discretionary items like boats can rebound quickly with improved consumer confidence or lower rates.
HZO failed the engine's momentum gate, with falling on-balance volume even as price sits above its 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The momentum score should climb back above the engine's threshold within 12 months for the technical picture to improve.
CounterPrice remaining above the 200-day moving average despite falling volume could reflect consolidation rather than an imminent breakdown.
The asymmetry ratio is negative, with the analyst target already reached and downside risk outweighing the remaining upside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive again for the risk-reward profile to favor holding or adding.
CounterElevated options positioning combined with high short interest could set up a short squeeze if sentiment reverses.
HZO has posted an even split of beats and misses over the last 4 quarters with a negative average surprise, while short interest and the put/call ratio sit at elevated levels.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Earnings surprises should turn consistently positive and short interest should decline for sentiment to meaningfully improve.
CounterHigh short interest combined with any earnings beat could trigger outsized short covering given the elevated bearish positioning already in place.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
HZO's quality sits below the engine's investment floor amid declining revenue and failed momentum, and a negative risk-reward asymmetry with mixed earnings and elevated short interest argues for exiting rather than holding the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -16%
Momentum
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.3 |
| OBV | 1.3 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.9 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.6 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.8 |
| days to cover | 1.8 |
| volatility | 2.2 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 0.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 17%
- ▸High IV: 78%
- ▸Above max pain $12
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(10)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:16d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.63
Upside
-13.7%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.59>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 6.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.9<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 6.0, Technical at 5.8, and Sentiment at 5.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2, and Peer rank at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.63 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Investment Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0, clearing the engine's minimum quality floor.
- P2Declining Revenue Consumer Cyclical Pressure
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Momentum Failed Gate
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current volume distribution trend.
- P4Negative Risk Reward Asymmetry
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0.5, reversing the current negative risk-reward reading.
- P5Mixed Earnings With High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest falls below 8% of float and average earnings surprise turns positive above 0%, improving the sentiment picture.