Value
8.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.9 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
HTD · Why this verdict
Why John Hancock Tax Advantaged Div (HTD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
HTD combines an attractive valuation and elite growth-plus-profitability profile with a bullish technical breakout, but fading volume, a dividend yield-trap warning, and exhausted upside near its 52-week high argue for holding rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
HTD screens as attractively valued with a very low PEG ratio and a meaningful margin of safety. Bull case | The value score should stay elevated and price should hold above the margin-of-safety implied floor. | →Stable |
| CounterBeing only a couple of percent from its 52-week high suggests much of the value may already be recognized by the market. | ||
HTD posts an elite Rule of 40 score with best-in-class margins and superior ROE versus peers, though the engine also flags an earnings-quality red flag on cash conversion. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should remain elite and margins should stay best-in-class over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings-quality red flag suggests reported earnings may not be fully backed by cash generation, which could undermine the elite growth-plus-profitability read. | ||
HTD is in a breakout setup — a golden cross, price above all moving averages, and a bullish MACD — but on-balance volume is falling, signaling distribution rather than accumulation. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume should turn back toward accumulation if the breakout is to be sustained by real buying pressure. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA golden cross and bullish MACD are meaningful trend-confirmation signals even without immediate volume support. | ||
The engine flags a yield-trap warning on HTD's distribution — a high yield that may not be safely covered. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend safety score should improve if the distribution proves sustainable over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterClosed-end funds like HTD often distribute under a managed payout policy that includes return of capital, which the yield-trap flag may not fully account for. | ||
With the stock close to its 52-week high and upside flagged as exhausted, the engine sees limited near-term reward relative to risk. Gates warning | The upside estimate should turn meaningfully positive again, or price should pull back to create a fresh entry point, for the asymmetry concern to resolve. | →Stable |
| CounterBullish insider buying across multiple transactions suggests those closest to the fund see continued value even near highs. | ||
HTD screens as attractively valued with a very low PEG ratio and a meaningful margin of safety.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated and price should hold above the margin-of-safety implied floor.
CounterBeing only a couple of percent from its 52-week high suggests much of the value may already be recognized by the market.
HTD posts an elite Rule of 40 score with best-in-class margins and superior ROE versus peers, though the engine also flags an earnings-quality red flag on cash conversion.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should remain elite and margins should stay best-in-class over the next 12 months.
CounterThe earnings-quality red flag suggests reported earnings may not be fully backed by cash generation, which could undermine the elite growth-plus-profitability read.
HTD is in a breakout setup — a golden cross, price above all moving averages, and a bullish MACD — but on-balance volume is falling, signaling distribution rather than accumulation.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume should turn back toward accumulation if the breakout is to be sustained by real buying pressure.
CounterA golden cross and bullish MACD are meaningful trend-confirmation signals even without immediate volume support.
The engine flags a yield-trap warning on HTD's distribution — a high yield that may not be safely covered.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend safety score should improve if the distribution proves sustainable over the next several quarters.
CounterClosed-end funds like HTD often distribute under a managed payout policy that includes return of capital, which the yield-trap flag may not fully account for.
With the stock close to its 52-week high and upside flagged as exhausted, the engine sees limited near-term reward relative to risk.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The upside estimate should turn meaningfully positive again, or price should pull back to create a fresh entry point, for the asymmetry concern to resolve.
CounterBullish insider buying across multiple transactions suggests those closest to the fund see continued value even near highs.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.2 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 0.1 |
| FCF quality | 1.9 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 24% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 61 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 5.9 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $12,009 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 8.8 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.9; weakest: Catalyst at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.9, Value at 8.3, and Growth at 7.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.0, Insider at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation With Margin Of Safety
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% while the margin-of-safety estimate does not widen, indicating the valuation was not as attractive as assessed.
- P2Elite Rule Of 40 With Quality Caveat
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 40, confirming the earnings-quality concern outweighs the elite growth-profitability read.
- P3Bullish Breakout With Fading Volume
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 5 trading days, invalidating the breakout despite the fading volume.
- P4Dividend Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend safety score rises above 7.0, resolving the current yield-trap warning.
- P5Upside Exhausted Near 52 Week High
Trip ifUpside percentage rises above 10%, reversing the current upside-exhausted reading.