Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
- ▸Attractively valued
HTB · Why this verdict
Why HomeTrust Bancshares (HTB) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
HomeTrust Bancshares combines a perfect earnings beat streak and an attractive valuation with a bullish technical breakout setup, but the shares have already reached their target near the 52-week high, and the engine flags a negative risk/reward asymmetry alongside heavy insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Valuation screens as attractive, with a forward P/E of 13.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.74, both of which the data characterizes as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E and PEG ratio should hold at current levels or the market should re-rate the shares higher over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe peer comparison ranks this company only around the middle of its group on value, suggesting the multiple may already be roughly in line with sector peers rather than a standout discount. | ||
The company has posted a perfect earnings beat streak across the last four quarters, with an average surprise near 17%, and the setup is read as carrying a genuine earnings catalyst heading into the next report. Catalyst breakdown | The company should continue beating estimates, or at minimum avoid a miss, over the next 12 months for this pillar to hold. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is described as light, which dampens the signal value of the beat streak and could mean the market is not closely tracking the pattern. | ||
The technical setup is read as a breakout, with a golden cross in place, the shares trading above all major moving averages, and volume showing accumulation via a rising on-balance-volume reading. Chart pattern detection | The breakout setup should hold with price remaining above key moving averages over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe shares are already within 3.1% of their 52-week high and have reached the analyst-derived target, raising the risk that the breakout is largely played out rather than early-stage. | ||
The risk/reward setup is unfavorable, with a negative asymmetry ratio of -2.33 that failed the engine's asymmetry gate, and insider selling that registers as heavy at 0.336% of market cap. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive and insider selling severity should ease from heavy over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEvery other gate in the checklist, including recent filings and news events, comes back clean, and the setup carries a genuine earnings-catalyst read, suggesting the negative asymmetry flag may be a near-term artifact rather than a broader deterioration. | ||
The shares have already reached their analyst-derived target and sit near their 52-week high, leaving just 1.1% upside to the take-profit level versus 4.4% downside to the stop-loss. Targets | Upside to the take-profit level should expand well past its current 1.1% level over the next 12 months for this caution to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterThe take-profit level is set using a resistance-based method and could be revised higher if the breakout setup continues to play out, meaning today's limited-upside read may understate the real ceiling. | ||
Valuation screens as attractive, with a forward P/E of 13.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.74, both of which the data characterizes as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E and PEG ratio should hold at current levels or the market should re-rate the shares higher over the next 12 months.
CounterThe peer comparison ranks this company only around the middle of its group on value, suggesting the multiple may already be roughly in line with sector peers rather than a standout discount.
The company has posted a perfect earnings beat streak across the last four quarters, with an average surprise near 17%, and the setup is read as carrying a genuine earnings catalyst heading into the next report.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company should continue beating estimates, or at minimum avoid a miss, over the next 12 months for this pillar to hold.
CounterAnalyst coverage is described as light, which dampens the signal value of the beat streak and could mean the market is not closely tracking the pattern.
The technical setup is read as a breakout, with a golden cross in place, the shares trading above all major moving averages, and volume showing accumulation via a rising on-balance-volume reading.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The breakout setup should hold with price remaining above key moving averages over the next 12 months.
CounterThe shares are already within 3.1% of their 52-week high and have reached the analyst-derived target, raising the risk that the breakout is largely played out rather than early-stage.
The risk/reward setup is unfavorable, with a negative asymmetry ratio of -2.33 that failed the engine's asymmetry gate, and insider selling that registers as heavy at 0.336% of market cap.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive and insider selling severity should ease from heavy over the next 12 months.
CounterEvery other gate in the checklist, including recent filings and news events, comes back clean, and the setup carries a genuine earnings-catalyst read, suggesting the negative asymmetry flag may be a near-term artifact rather than a broader deterioration.
The shares have already reached their analyst-derived target and sit near their 52-week high, leaving just 1.1% upside to the take-profit level versus 4.4% downside to the stop-loss.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Upside to the take-profit level should expand well past its current 1.1% level over the next 12 months for this caution to ease.
CounterThe take-profit level is set using a resistance-based method and could be revised higher if the breakout setup continues to play out, meaning today's limited-upside read may understate the real ceiling.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.6 |
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,794,351 (0.345% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 7.8 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 9.1 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (4)
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.34%=HEAVY
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.69
Upside
-8.7%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT. Top dim: Technical at 8.2; weakest: Momentum at 3.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, and Value at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.5, Peer rank at 5.0, and Growth at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.69 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% in the next reported quarter, breaking the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Attractive Valuation Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from the current 13.2x.
- P3Bullish Technical Breakout
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average for more than 5 trading days.
- P4Negative Asymmetry Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio rises above 0.5 from the current -2.33.
- P5Limited Upside Near 52 Week High
Trip ifUpside to the take-profit level rises above 10% from the current 1.1%.