Value
8.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.47
- ▸Attractively valued
HOS · Why this verdict
Why Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Hornbeck Offshore is a cheap, high-quality marine services operator (18% margins, Piotroski 8 of 9) with 47.9% upside to the analyst target, but revenue is down 11% and momentum is deeply negative, so the entry timing is unconfirmed.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 18% and the Piotroski F-Score is 8 of 9, despite no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Margins hold near 18% and the Piotroski score stays at 6 or higher through 2027. | — |
| CounterWithout a competitive moat, vessel-market pricing can compress margins quickly if day rates fall. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, with a 13.8x forward P/E, a PEG of 0.48 and a maximum 10.0 score on EV/EBITDA. Valuation breakdown | Valuation stays below about 15x forward earnings while earnings are delivered over 12 months. | — |
| CounterA cheap multiple in an offshore services business can reflect cyclical earnings that may roll over, and revenue is already shrinking. | ||
Revenue is declining 11%, giving a growth score of 3.9 despite an earnings growth score of 7.7. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth turns positive within 12 months. | — |
| CounterEarnings growth is outpacing revenue, which suggests margin gains from efficiency or mix may offset the lower sales. | ||
Momentum of 2.1 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with RSI at 29, price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 before the valuation case can be acted on. | — |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising (+3.1% over 30 days), which indicates a pullback within an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. | ||
Price is 47.9% below the analyst target against 9.6% downside, an asymmetry of 5.0 that clears the 1.5 requirement. Bull case | Price closes a meaningful part of the gap to the analyst target as momentum stabilizes. | — |
| CounterAnalyst targets for cyclical offshore names can lag falling day rates, and implied volatility of 149% means the downside can exceed the stop distance. | ||
Margins are strong at 18% and the Piotroski F-Score is 8 of 9, despite no competitive moat.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins hold near 18% and the Piotroski score stays at 6 or higher through 2027.
CounterWithout a competitive moat, vessel-market pricing can compress margins quickly if day rates fall.
The stock is attractively valued, with a 13.8x forward P/E, a PEG of 0.48 and a maximum 10.0 score on EV/EBITDA.
—Valuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation stays below about 15x forward earnings while earnings are delivered over 12 months.
CounterA cheap multiple in an offshore services business can reflect cyclical earnings that may roll over, and revenue is already shrinking.
Revenue is declining 11%, giving a growth score of 3.9 despite an earnings growth score of 7.7.
—Growth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth turns positive within 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth is outpacing revenue, which suggests margin gains from efficiency or mix may offset the lower sales.
Momentum of 2.1 fails the engine's 4.5 minimum, with RSI at 29, price below the 200-day average and falling on-balance volume.
—Momentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 before the valuation case can be acted on.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising (+3.1% over 30 days), which indicates a pullback within an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
Price is 47.9% below the analyst target against 9.6% downside, an asymmetry of 5.0 that clears the 1.5 requirement.
—Bull case
- Expectation
- Price closes a meaningful part of the gap to the analyst target as momentum stabilizes.
CounterAnalyst targets for cyclical offshore names can lag falling day rates, and implied volatility of 149% means the downside can exceed the stop distance.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 5.6 |
| Op margin | 7.4 |
| Net margin | 8.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -11%
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 79%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 3.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
- ▸Above max pain $6
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.26
Upside
+52.2%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5, 8K_CRITICAL:4.01) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.26 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Technical at 7.1, and Quality at 7.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.0, Momentum at 2.5, and Growth at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Multiples
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from current 13.8x.
- P2Strong Margins Balance Sheet
Trip ifMargin falls below 10% from current 18%.
- P3Declining Revenue Weak Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth exceeds 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Negative Momentum Capitulation Risk
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from current 2.1.
- P5Large Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 15% from current 47.9%.