Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
HBT · Why this verdict
Why HBT Financial (HBT) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
HBT Financial screens cheap on an earnings basis with a beat-heavy quarterly track record and firm technical momentum, but the stock has already reached its price target and its risk/reward setup has turned negative, leaving the case better suited to holding than adding here.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insider selling has been modest in scale, with the most recent transaction representing only 0.039% of market capitalization. Insider transaction read | Insider transactions should remain low in magnitude relative to market cap, with no acceleration in selling. | →Stable |
| CounterThe insider signal is classified as bearish with no offsetting buying in the past 90 days, so continued one-directional selling could still weigh on sentiment even if individually modest. | ||
The stock is attractively valued, trading at a forward price/earnings multiple of roughly 10.5x with a PEG ratio near 0.25, a combination the data explicitly flags as attractive. Valuation breakdown | The valuation discount should narrow as the forward multiple and PEG ratio re-rate closer to peer norms over the next 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe shares have already reached the analyst price target with limited upside remaining, suggesting much of the re-rating case may already be priced in. | ||
HBT has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, most recently by 9.7%, supporting a strong earnings beat streak. Earnings track record | The company should continue posting positive EPS surprises averaging above the current ~4.9% pace over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quarter immediately preceding the latest beat came in exactly in-line with estimates, showing the beat streak is not guaranteed every period. | ||
Shares are showing strong technical momentum, trading above the 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should hold with continued volume accumulation and the stock sustaining its position above the 200-day moving average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock is technically overbought with an RSI reading of 71, raising the risk of a near-term pullback. | ||
The current setup fails the engine's risk/reward bar, with downside to the stop level outweighing remaining upside to the target, resulting in a recommendation to avoid adding new capital. Engine gate (failed) | The reward-to-risk balance should improve as downside narrows or the target price is raised, moving the ratio back toward positive territory. | →Stable |
| CounterAn earnings report is due in 23 days against a three-of-four beat streak, a catalyst that could push shares higher and reset the risk/reward more favorably. | ||
Insider selling has been modest in scale, with the most recent transaction representing only 0.039% of market capitalization.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider transactions should remain low in magnitude relative to market cap, with no acceleration in selling.
CounterThe insider signal is classified as bearish with no offsetting buying in the past 90 days, so continued one-directional selling could still weigh on sentiment even if individually modest.
The stock is attractively valued, trading at a forward price/earnings multiple of roughly 10.5x with a PEG ratio near 0.25, a combination the data explicitly flags as attractive.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation discount should narrow as the forward multiple and PEG ratio re-rate closer to peer norms over the next 12 months.
CounterThe shares have already reached the analyst price target with limited upside remaining, suggesting much of the re-rating case may already be priced in.
HBT has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, most recently by 9.7%, supporting a strong earnings beat streak.
→StableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- The company should continue posting positive EPS surprises averaging above the current ~4.9% pace over the next several quarters.
CounterThe quarter immediately preceding the latest beat came in exactly in-line with estimates, showing the beat streak is not guaranteed every period.
Shares are showing strong technical momentum, trading above the 200-day moving average with rising volume accumulation.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should hold with continued volume accumulation and the stock sustaining its position above the 200-day moving average.
CounterThe stock is technically overbought with an RSI reading of 71, raising the risk of a near-term pullback.
The current setup fails the engine's risk/reward bar, with downside to the stop level outweighing remaining upside to the target, resulting in a recommendation to avoid adding new capital.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The reward-to-risk balance should improve as downside narrows or the target price is raised, moving the ratio back toward positive territory.
CounterAn earnings report is due in 23 days against a three-of-four beat streak, a catalyst that could push shares higher and reset the risk/reward more favorably.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $455,416 (0.039% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.4 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.37
Upside
-12.3%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Growth at 8.4 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.4, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, and Value at 7.4; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.2, Peer rank at 4.4, and Quality at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.37 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation DiscountTripped
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 15x from the current 10.5x, erasing the valuation discount.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifQuarterly EPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Firm Technical Momentum
Trip ifRelative strength index falls below 30, reversing from the current overbought reading of 71.
- P4Negative Risk Reward Asymmetry
Trip ifThe risk/reward ratio rises above 0, reversing the current -0.95 negative asymmetry reading.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling as a share of market capitalization exceeds 1%, up sharply from the current 0.039% level.