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HBCPHome Bancorp, Inc.Sell5.3·$69.32-1.90%
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Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $69.32 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away).

Home Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Home Bank, National Association that provides various banking products and services for individuals and businesses in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, the United States. The company offers deposit products, including... Read more

$69.32+1.0% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#187 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.76%(5y avg 2.37%)Payout19.83%sustainable
Stop $65.84Target $70.03(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$68.13-1.7%4 analysts
$70.03our TP
$69.32price
$68.13mean
$66
$70

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $69.32 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 20, 202616d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.0% away)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$544M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.9%
ROE11.0%
Rev Growth5.5%
Beta0.50
Dividend1.76%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV56%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.2
Revenue Growth
3.9
GatesA.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 16d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $64.00Resistance $71.46

Price Targets

$66
$70
A.Upside+1.0%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-16.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (16d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HBCP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $69.32 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.0% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $65.84. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HBCP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $70.03 (+1.0% upside). Prior stop was $65.84. Stop-loss: $65.84.

What are the risks of investing in HBCP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.0% away); Weak growth.

Is HBCP overvalued or undervalued?

Home Bancorp, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HBCP?

10 analysts cover HBCP with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $68.

What does Home Bancorp, Inc. do?Home Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Home Bank, National Association that provides various...

Home Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Home Bank, National Association that provides various banking products and services for individuals and businesses in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, the United States. The company offers deposit products, including interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing checking, money market, savings, NOW, and certificates of deposit accounts; custodial accounts; health savings and individual retirement accounts; and statement savings. It also provides various loan products comprising one-to four-family first mortgage loans, home equity loans and lines, commercial real estate loans, construction and land loans, multi-family residential loans, commercial and industrial loans, and consumer loans; personal loans, including auto, savings and CD secured, unsecured, and credit builder loans; and business loans, such as business term and SBA loans. In addition, the company invests in loans and securities. Further, it offers debit and credit cards; account services; treasury management, such as online banking and bill pay, mobile banking, remote deposit capture, positive pay, and ACH positive pay services; merchant card services; and payroll cards. Home Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Lafayette, Louisiana.

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