Value
8.6/10data confidence 20%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
- ▸Attractively valued
GUT · Why this verdict
Why Gabelli Utility Trust (The) (GUT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Gabelli Utility Trust screens as an attractively valued, moat-protected compounder, but an earnings-quality red flag, a yield-trap warning, exhausted upside near its 52-week high, and elevated leverage/volatility together support the recommendation to maintain rather than add to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The underlying holdings screen as an attractively valued compounder with a wide economic moat and an elite Rule of 40 score of 61, supporting the case for a quality, moat-protected portfolio. Bull case | The quality score should remain above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the compounder characteristics persist. | →Stable |
| CounterA single elite Rule of 40 reading is a snapshot and can be driven by one strong period rather than durable moat-based advantages across the underlying holdings. | ||
The engine flags an earnings quality red flag, with free cash flow at just 9% of net income, indicating reported earnings may not be well backed by actual cash generation. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income ratio should rise above 50% over the next 12 months if cash conversion improves. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA low FCF/NI ratio in a single period can reflect timing differences in working capital or one-off capital expenditures rather than a persistent earnings-quality problem. | ||
The engine flags a yield trap warning, indicating the security's distribution yield may not be sustainably covered despite the underlying portfolio's quality characteristics. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend safety component should rise above 6.0 over the next 12 months if distribution coverage improves. | →Stable |
| CounterClosed-end fund distributions are often structured to include return of capital by design, so a yield-trap flag may be a mechanical scoring artifact rather than a sign of an imminent cut. | ||
The engine flags exhausted upside asymmetry with modeled upside at 0.0%, consistent with the stock trading just 1.5% below its 52-week high and leaving little further modeled reward. Gates warning | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive above 1.0 over the next 12 months if the price consolidates or pulls back from its highs. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA stock near its 52-week high in a genuine uptrend can continue making new highs rather than reverting, so proximity to the high alone doesn't guarantee exhausted upside. | ||
Risk metrics are elevated, with the debt-to-equity component maxed at 10.0 and volatility at 8.9, reflecting a highly leveraged, risk-heavy profile in the engine's model. Components | The composite risk score should fall below 6.5 over the next 12 months if leverage or volatility eases. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLeverage-driven risk scoring is a structural feature of many closed-end funds by design, so a high debt-to-equity reading may reflect the fund's normal operating model rather than a rising risk of loss. | ||
The underlying holdings screen as an attractively valued compounder with a wide economic moat and an elite Rule of 40 score of 61, supporting the case for a quality, moat-protected portfolio.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The quality score should remain above 6.0 over the next 12 months if the compounder characteristics persist.
CounterA single elite Rule of 40 reading is a snapshot and can be driven by one strong period rather than durable moat-based advantages across the underlying holdings.
The engine flags an earnings quality red flag, with free cash flow at just 9% of net income, indicating reported earnings may not be well backed by actual cash generation.
Tripped→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio should rise above 50% over the next 12 months if cash conversion improves.
CounterA low FCF/NI ratio in a single period can reflect timing differences in working capital or one-off capital expenditures rather than a persistent earnings-quality problem.
The engine flags a yield trap warning, indicating the security's distribution yield may not be sustainably covered despite the underlying portfolio's quality characteristics.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend safety component should rise above 6.0 over the next 12 months if distribution coverage improves.
CounterClosed-end fund distributions are often structured to include return of capital by design, so a yield-trap flag may be a mechanical scoring artifact rather than a sign of an imminent cut.
The engine flags exhausted upside asymmetry with modeled upside at 0.0%, consistent with the stock trading just 1.5% below its 52-week high and leaving little further modeled reward.
Tripped→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive above 1.0 over the next 12 months if the price consolidates or pulls back from its highs.
CounterA stock near its 52-week high in a genuine uptrend can continue making new highs rather than reverting, so proximity to the high alone doesn't guarantee exhausted upside.
Risk metrics are elevated, with the debt-to-equity component maxed at 10.0 and volatility at 8.9, reflecting a highly leveraged, risk-heavy profile in the engine's model.
↓DeterioratingComponents
- Expectation
- The composite risk score should fall below 6.5 over the next 12 months if leverage or volatility eases.
CounterLeverage-driven risk scoring is a structural feature of many closed-end funds by design, so a high debt-to-equity reading may reflect the fund's normal operating model rather than a rising risk of loss.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.7 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 9% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 61 (elite)
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.8 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
Catalyst
2.2/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 2.2 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.6; weakest: Catalyst at 2.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1, and Technical at 7.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.2, Momentum at 4.0, and Growth at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Economic Moat Compounder
Trip ifQuality score falls below 4.0, from the current 6.2, for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Quality Red FlagTripped
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 50%, from the current 9%, over the next 2 quarters.
- P3Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend safety component rises above 6.0, from the current 3.5, over the next 2 quarters.
- P4Exhausted Upside Near HighsTripped
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0, from the current 0.0, as the price pulls back or a new catalyst emerges.
- P5Elevated Leverage And Volatility Risk
Trip ifRisk score falls below 6.5, from the current 8.7, over the next 2 quarters.