Value
8.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
GLAS · Why this verdict
Why Glass House Brands Inc. Subordi (GLAS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GLAS is a small specialty-pharma name with no usable price feed this run, cash burn alongside declining revenue, and a bottom-decile peer ranking, offset only by a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
GLAS's price feed returned no data this run, which the engine flags as a hard blocker preventing any entry, target, or stop calculation. Warnings | A resumed, non-null price feed within the next reporting cycle should restore the ability to compute entry, target, and stop levels. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPersistent no-price data can also reflect a genuinely illiquid or thinly-traded name rather than a temporary feed gap. | ||
The company is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -15% of revenue, alongside revenue declining roughly 10% year over year. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn less negative and revenue decline should moderate toward flat or positive. | →Stable |
| CounterA cash-burning small specialty-pharma name can still be pre-revenue-inflection if it's investing in a near-term product launch, masking underlying trajectory. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise near 99%, despite the broader quality concerns. Earnings | The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the next earnings report. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats this large and consistent, paired with declining revenue, often reflect deliberately low guidance rather than genuine business strength. | ||
The stock ranks at the very bottom of its peer group, with a peer-rank score of 1.0 out of 10, reflecting broad relative underperformance versus comparable companies. Peer rank | The peer-rank score should climb out of the bottom decile as relative fundamentals or valuation improve versus peers. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA bottom-decile peer ranking in a single snapshot period can reflect a temporarily depressed sector-wide multiple rather than firm-specific weakness. | ||
GLAS's price feed returned no data this run, which the engine flags as a hard blocker preventing any entry, target, or stop calculation.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- A resumed, non-null price feed within the next reporting cycle should restore the ability to compute entry, target, and stop levels.
CounterPersistent no-price data can also reflect a genuinely illiquid or thinly-traded name rather than a temporary feed gap.
The company is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -15% of revenue, alongside revenue declining roughly 10% year over year.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn less negative and revenue decline should moderate toward flat or positive.
CounterA cash-burning small specialty-pharma name can still be pre-revenue-inflection if it's investing in a near-term product launch, masking underlying trajectory.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise near 99%, despite the broader quality concerns.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the next earnings report.
CounterBeats this large and consistent, paired with declining revenue, often reflect deliberately low guidance rather than genuine business strength.
The stock ranks at the very bottom of its peer group, with a peer-rank score of 1.0 out of 10, reflecting broad relative underperformance versus comparable companies.
↑ImprovingPeer rank
- Expectation
- The peer-rank score should climb out of the bottom decile as relative fundamentals or valuation improve versus peers.
CounterA bottom-decile peer ranking in a single snapshot period can reflect a temporarily depressed sector-wide multiple rather than firm-specific weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -11% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 6.5 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 5, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 316%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $30,659 (0.008% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 1.5 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
Catalyst
8.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $363M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 5, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -71% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Catalyst at 8.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 1.7, Momentum at 2.7, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1No Price Data Blocks Trade Setup
Trip ifPrice data remains unavailable for more than 2 consecutive engine runs.
- P2Cash Burning Declining Revenue
Trip ifFree cash flow stays below 0% of revenue for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P3Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifBeat count falls below 4 out of the trailing 4 quarters after the next earnings report.
- P4Bottom Decile Peer Ranking
Trip ifPeer-rank score stays below 2.0 out of 10 for 2 more consecutive quarters.