Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.37
- ▸Attractively valued
GILT · Why this verdict
Why Gilat Satellite Networks (GILT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The overall business quality score of 3.7 falls below the 4.0 minimum threshold required to hold a position, reflecting thin margins, a low return on assets, and free cash flow that captures only 31% of reported net income—a combination that leaves little cushion if business conditions soften. Quality breakdown | Quality improves above the 4.0 floor, driven by improved cash conversion—free cash flow rising to at least 50% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters—alongside stabilizing margin metrics. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski financial strength score is 7 out of 9, indicating that the balance sheet structure and short-term financial health are reasonably sound despite the low quality rating; the floor breach may reflect margin compression rather than solvency risk. | ||
The company beat analyst earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of nearly 240%—including a 472.7% beat in the oldest period and a 350.0% beat most recently—suggesting the business is delivering results well ahead of what analysts are modeling. Catalyst breakdown | Earnings beats continue for at least 2 more consecutive quarters at a positive surprise margin above 20%, demonstrating that the outperformance reflects genuine business momentum rather than chronically undercooked estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterWhen reported earnings routinely trounce estimates by several multiples, it often signals that consensus estimates are anchored too low rather than that business quality is genuinely exceptional—the quality score of 3.7 out of 10 corroborates that concern. | ||
Price sits below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume is declining—indicating more shares are being sold than accumulated—however the 200-day average itself is still rising at 8.9% per month, which the data characterizes as a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within two months and on-balance volume turns upward, confirming that the pullback is temporary rather than the start of a broader decline. | →Stable |
| CounterImplied volatility of 135% embeds extreme uncertainty in option pricing; if the selloff deepens, the rising long-term average could begin to flatten or roll over, converting a pullback into a structural trend change. | ||
The risk/reward at the current spot price does not clear the minimum entry threshold—upside to the analyst-derived target is 14.1% while potential downside is 15.0%, yielding a ratio of 0.94 against the required 1.5 minimum—making this a hold-and-observe situation rather than a new-money opportunity despite the 34% analyst upside consensus. Warnings | A pullback in price widens the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5 at spot, creating a geometry that supports initiating or adding a position. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst sentiment is strongly positive with 34% upside consensus and a favorable news tone, suggesting the market may begin to close the gap to target without offering a materially better entry point. | ||
The overall business quality score of 3.7 falls below the 4.0 minimum threshold required to hold a position, reflecting thin margins, a low return on assets, and free cash flow that captures only 31% of reported net income—a combination that leaves little cushion if business conditions soften.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality improves above the 4.0 floor, driven by improved cash conversion—free cash flow rising to at least 50% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters—alongside stabilizing margin metrics.
CounterThe Piotroski financial strength score is 7 out of 9, indicating that the balance sheet structure and short-term financial health are reasonably sound despite the low quality rating; the floor breach may reflect margin compression rather than solvency risk.
The company beat analyst earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of nearly 240%—including a 472.7% beat in the oldest period and a 350.0% beat most recently—suggesting the business is delivering results well ahead of what analysts are modeling.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings beats continue for at least 2 more consecutive quarters at a positive surprise margin above 20%, demonstrating that the outperformance reflects genuine business momentum rather than chronically undercooked estimates.
CounterWhen reported earnings routinely trounce estimates by several multiples, it often signals that consensus estimates are anchored too low rather than that business quality is genuinely exceptional—the quality score of 3.7 out of 10 corroborates that concern.
Price sits below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume is declining—indicating more shares are being sold than accumulated—however the 200-day average itself is still rising at 8.9% per month, which the data characterizes as a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within two months and on-balance volume turns upward, confirming that the pullback is temporary rather than the start of a broader decline.
CounterImplied volatility of 135% embeds extreme uncertainty in option pricing; if the selloff deepens, the rising long-term average could begin to flatten or roll over, converting a pullback into a structural trend change.
The risk/reward at the current spot price does not clear the minimum entry threshold—upside to the analyst-derived target is 14.1% while potential downside is 15.0%, yielding a ratio of 0.94 against the required 1.5 minimum—making this a hold-and-observe situation rather than a new-money opportunity despite the 34% analyst upside consensus.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- A pullback in price widens the reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5 at spot, creating a geometry that supports initiating or adding a position.
CounterAnalyst sentiment is strongly positive with 34% upside consensus and a favorable news tone, suggesting the market may begin to close the gap to target without offering a materially better entry point.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Gilat Satellite Networks has beaten earnings estimates in all four recent quarters by enormous margins—average surprise exceeding 239%—and analysts see 34% upside from current levels, but the investment case is constrained by business quality that falls below the minimum acceptable threshold, weak price momentum with selling pressure in the options market, and a risk/reward at the current spot price that is too thin to justify new entry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 3.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 2.5 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.45 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $267,582 (0.028% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 6.1 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 7.1 |
| 52w position | 2.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
- ▸High IV: 104%
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:33d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.02
Upside
+26.7%
Downside
13.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 8.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Sentiment at 7.6, and Value at 7.4; the weakest are Quality at 3.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2, and Insider at 4.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating that the extreme beat pattern has normalized or reversed.
- P2Business Quality Below Minimum Floor
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income rises above 50% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating that earnings quality has improved enough to address the quality floor breach.
- P3Momentum Weakness Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPrice falls more than 15% below the 200-day moving average while the 200-day average slope turns negative, confirming a structural downtrend rather than a temporary pullback.
- P4Asymmetry Too Thin For New Entry
Trip ifReward-to-risk ratio at spot price exceeds 1.5 following a pullback to below $12, creating a favorable entry geometry.