Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Reported EPS
- $0.37
- Estimate
- $0.29
- Surprise
- +28.7%
- Revenue (period 2026-06-30)
- $732.1M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.0 → 6.3/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) beat the $0.29 estimate with diluted EPS of $0.37 — a large 28.7% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.0/10) to Hold at 6.3/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates GEO Sell at 6.1/10.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +28.7% surprise compares with a +28.7% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-05.
What supports the rating
- Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
- Strong growth profile
What argues against it
- Thin upside margin: 3.9%
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
- Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $30.88
- Price target
- $32.09
- Stop
- $29.03
- Upside to target
- +3.9%
- Reward-to-risk
- 0.6:1
Forward estimates sit below the trailing run-rate (18.1× forward vs 14.6× trailing) — consensus expects earnings to decline from here.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-04 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
GEO at TrendMatrix's latest read
Industrial quarters are order-book stories — backlog and book-to-bill color how the market reads the reported number.
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- Market cap
- $4.06B
- P/E (fwd)
- 18.1
- P/E (ttm)
- 14.6
- 52-week range
- $12.51–$33.15
- Off 52-week high
- 6.8%
- RSI (14)
- 47
- Volume vs avg
- 1.34×
- Score today
- 6.1/10