Value
8.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.8 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
GDV · Why this verdict
Why Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business benefits from a wide economic moat and delivers elite operating efficiency — a Rule of 40 score of 68, combining growth and profitability, places it well above the threshold that typically signals durable competitive positioning and high-quality compounding characteristics. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score stays above 60 over the next 12 months, confirming that growth and margins are jointly sustained rather than one being sacrificed for the other. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is converting at just 8% of reported net income — a red flag that most of the earnings base may be non-cash or unrealized, which means the apparent quality of the income statement may overstate the real cash generation underpinning the moat narrative. | ||
The stock is currently trading above its resistance-derived fair value target, with upside to that target now at zero and the risk/reward ratio flipped negative — meaning the geometry no longer supports initiating or adding to a position at current prices. Price targets | A pullback brings price at least 5% below the current level, restoring a positive risk/reward ratio and re-opening the entry window. | →Stable |
| CounterIn a strong breakout trend with golden cross and bullish MACD, resistance levels can be left behind quickly — the fair value ceiling may simply be revised upward if the underlying business continues to compound, making the current price look reasonable in hindsight. | ||
The chart is in a confirmed breakout: a golden cross is in place, price is above all moving averages, RSI sits at a balanced 54, MACD is bullish, and on-balance volume is rising — a cluster of technical conditions that typically indicates the path of least resistance is higher in the intermediate term. Chart pattern detection | Price stays above the 200-day moving average for the next 6 months and on-balance volume continues to trend higher, sustaining the breakout structure. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is within 0.9% of its 52-week high, meaning the breakout has already been substantially priced in — late-cycle breakouts near annual highs carry elevated reversal risk if broad market conditions soften. | ||
Despite reporting net income that supports an attractive valuation on an earnings basis, free cash flow is converting at just 8% of that net income — a level that signals the vast majority of reported earnings are not landing as cash, raising questions about the sustainability and real economic value of the stated income. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion rises above 50% of net income for 2 consecutive periods, demonstrating that earnings quality is improving and reported profits are becoming more cash-backed. | →Stable |
| CounterFor certain business structures, low cash conversion relative to net income can reflect accounting treatment of investment income or unrealized gains rather than operational weakness — if the earnings composition explains the gap, the red flag may be less meaningful than it appears. | ||
The business benefits from a wide economic moat and delivers elite operating efficiency — a Rule of 40 score of 68, combining growth and profitability, places it well above the threshold that typically signals durable competitive positioning and high-quality compounding characteristics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score stays above 60 over the next 12 months, confirming that growth and margins are jointly sustained rather than one being sacrificed for the other.
CounterFree cash flow is converting at just 8% of reported net income — a red flag that most of the earnings base may be non-cash or unrealized, which means the apparent quality of the income statement may overstate the real cash generation underpinning the moat narrative.
The stock is currently trading above its resistance-derived fair value target, with upside to that target now at zero and the risk/reward ratio flipped negative — meaning the geometry no longer supports initiating or adding to a position at current prices.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A pullback brings price at least 5% below the current level, restoring a positive risk/reward ratio and re-opening the entry window.
CounterIn a strong breakout trend with golden cross and bullish MACD, resistance levels can be left behind quickly — the fair value ceiling may simply be revised upward if the underlying business continues to compound, making the current price look reasonable in hindsight.
The chart is in a confirmed breakout: a golden cross is in place, price is above all moving averages, RSI sits at a balanced 54, MACD is bullish, and on-balance volume is rising — a cluster of technical conditions that typically indicates the path of least resistance is higher in the intermediate term.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price stays above the 200-day moving average for the next 6 months and on-balance volume continues to trend higher, sustaining the breakout structure.
CounterThe stock is within 0.9% of its 52-week high, meaning the breakout has already been substantially priced in — late-cycle breakouts near annual highs carry elevated reversal risk if broad market conditions soften.
Despite reporting net income that supports an attractive valuation on an earnings basis, free cash flow is converting at just 8% of that net income — a level that signals the vast majority of reported earnings are not landing as cash, raising questions about the sustainability and real economic value of the stated income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion rises above 50% of net income for 2 consecutive periods, demonstrating that earnings quality is improving and reported profits are becoming more cash-backed.
CounterFor certain business structures, low cash conversion relative to net income can reflect accounting treatment of investment income or unrealized gains rather than operational weakness — if the earnings composition explains the gap, the red flag may be less meaningful than it appears.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
GDV combines a wide economic moat, elite operating efficiency, and a technically strong chart — golden cross, above all moving averages, rising on-balance volume — but current price has already moved above the resistance-based fair value target, leaving upside exhausted and the risk/reward unfavorable for new capital at this level.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.2 |
| ROA | 0.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 0.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.6 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 8% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 68 (elite)
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 9.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 609.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
6.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.1; weakest: Technical at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.1, Value at 8.0, and Growth at 8.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Insider at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Fair Value Ceiling
Trip ifPrice pulls back more than 8% from current levels and remains below the 200-day moving average for 30 or more consecutive trading days.
- P2Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume declines for more than 20 consecutive trading days.
- P3Wide Economic Moat Quality
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 40 for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P4Fcf Conversion Shortfall
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion rises above 50% of net income for 2 consecutive periods.