Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
FSUN · Why this verdict
Why FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
FirstSun Capital Bancorp shows constructive momentum and a cheap valuation, but a fresh negative news-driven downgrade and a mixed earnings record introduce near-term uncertainty.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
FirstSun is in a momentum-continuation setup per the model, with RSI at 64 and a bullish MACD signaling the recent uptrend remains intact. Chart pattern detection | RSI should stay in the 50-70 range without breaking down over the next 12 months for the trend-continuation thesis to hold. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterAn RSI of 64 is approaching overbought territory, and momentum-continuation setups can reverse sharply once RSI crosses into the 70s. | ||
FirstSun trades at a forward P/E of about 8.3x with a very low PEG ratio of 0.21, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 over the next 12 months for the deep-value thesis to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterAn unusually low PEG can reflect overly optimistic consensus growth estimates for a regional bank rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
A negative news modifier has downgraded the model's stance from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, layering a fresh adverse signal on top of an otherwise constructive setup. Warnings | The news modifier should clear back to neutral over the next 12 months without recurrence of adverse news. | →Stable |
| CounterNews-driven modifiers tend to be transient and often normalize within a quarter once the specific news event is fully priced in. | ||
FirstSun has missed earnings in 2 of its last 4 quarters, and the catalyst notes flag ongoing earnings concerns tied to those misses. Bear case | The company should return to at least 3 of 4 quarters beating estimates over the next year for execution concerns to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 2 misses were modest, and the company still posted 2 beats in the same period, showing a mixed rather than clearly deteriorating trend. | ||
FirstSun is in a momentum-continuation setup per the model, with RSI at 64 and a bullish MACD signaling the recent uptrend remains intact.
Tripped→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- RSI should stay in the 50-70 range without breaking down over the next 12 months for the trend-continuation thesis to hold.
CounterAn RSI of 64 is approaching overbought territory, and momentum-continuation setups can reverse sharply once RSI crosses into the 70s.
FirstSun trades at a forward P/E of about 8.3x with a very low PEG ratio of 0.21, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay below 0.5 over the next 12 months for the deep-value thesis to hold.
CounterAn unusually low PEG can reflect overly optimistic consensus growth estimates for a regional bank rather than a genuine bargain.
A negative news modifier has downgraded the model's stance from hold-if-holding to sell-if-holding, layering a fresh adverse signal on top of an otherwise constructive setup.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The news modifier should clear back to neutral over the next 12 months without recurrence of adverse news.
CounterNews-driven modifiers tend to be transient and often normalize within a quarter once the specific news event is fully priced in.
FirstSun has missed earnings in 2 of its last 4 quarters, and the catalyst notes flag ongoing earnings concerns tied to those misses.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company should return to at least 3 of 4 quarters beating estimates over the next year for execution concerns to ease.
CounterThe 2 misses were modest, and the company still posted 2 beats in the same period, showing a mixed rather than clearly deteriorating trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 0.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 9.4 |
| Net margin | 5.2 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 42% YoY
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 77)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 77 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.6 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.53 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.8 |
| quality rank | 0.5 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
Catalyst
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.7 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.13
Upside
-2.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($2.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 4.0. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.3, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.0, Peer rank at 4.0, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Momentum Trend ContinuationTripped
Trip ifRSI rises above 75 or MACD turns bearish, breaking the momentum-continuation trend.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.21.
- P3Negative News Driven Downgrade
Trip ifThe news modifier rises to 0 or above for more than 2 consecutive months without new adverse news.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe company posts a negative earnings surprise that falls below 0% in its next reported quarter (due 2026-07-27), extending the miss pattern to 3 of 5.