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FSBCFive Star BancorpHold6.2·$48.66-1.82%
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Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

Five Star Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Five Star Bank that provides banking products and services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals primarily in Northern California. The company offers deposit products, including checking,... Read more

$48.66+0.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#55 of 225 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.06%Payout26.98%sustainable
Stop $45.98Target $49.01(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$46.00-5.5%5 analysts
$49.01our TP
$48.66price
$46.00mean
$43
$53

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 20, 202616d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.7% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn42.6%
ROE15.5%
Rev Growth26.9%
Beta0.51
Dividend2.06%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV77%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 16d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.00Resistance $50.01

Price Targets

$46
$49
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (16d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSBC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $49.01 (+0.7%), stop $45.98 (−5.8%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSBC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.01 (+0.7% upside). Target $49.01 (+0.7%), stop $45.98 (−5.8%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $45.98.

What are the risks of investing in FSBC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.7% away).

Is FSBC overvalued or undervalued?

Five Star Bancorp trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FSBC?

11 analysts cover FSBC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Five Star Bancorp do?Five Star Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Five Star Bank that provides banking products and services...

Five Star Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Five Star Bank that provides banking products and services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals primarily in Northern California. The company offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, and term certificate accounts, as well as time deposits. It also provides debit cards, remote deposit capture, online banking, mobile banking, and direct deposit services. In addition, the company offers loan products, such as commercial real estate loans; commercial land and construction loans; residential real estate and construction loans; farmland loans; the U.S. small business administration loans; and consumer and other loans, as well as operating lines of credit. Further, its investment portfolio consists of U.S. government agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and obligations of states and political subdivisions. Five Star Bancorp was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Rancho Cordova, California.

Related stocks: NBN (Northeast Bank) · BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group, Inc.) · NPB (Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.) · CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services, I)
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