Value
2.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Expensive valuation
FRNM · Why this verdict
Why Freenome (FRNM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Freenome ranks as an industry growth leader with overbought momentum already carrying it above its analyst target, while a below-floor quality score and rich valuation argue for exiting rather than holding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Freenome's price already sits above the analyst price target by roughly 4.0%, and the engine's asymmetry gate has failed at a negative ratio, signaling the reward-to-risk setup has turned unfavorable. Estimated upside | The stock should either pull back toward the analyst target or the target itself should be raised, restoring a positive asymmetry ratio over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock trading above target can keep running if the target is stale and underlying growth continues to outpace what analysts modeled. | ||
Freenome's quality score of 2.4 sits below the 4.0 floor, reflecting a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score and overall quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFor a high-growth diagnostics company still scaling commercially, near-term Piotroski-style fundamentals are a poor proxy for the eventual quality of the business. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 83, well above typical overbought thresholds, while still holding above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool below 70 without a sharp price breakdown over the coming weeks. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterExtreme momentum during a genuine re-rating fueled by strong growth can persist longer than typical overbought signals would suggest. | ||
Freenome ranks as an industry growth leader on the engine's peer-rank growth metric. Peer-rank breakdown | The growth peer-rank should stay elevated as revenue growth continues outpacing industry peers over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit growth off a small revenue base is easy to sustain briefly but difficult to maintain as the base scales. | ||
The engine flags rich valuation as a key risk, consistent with a value score of just 2.4 out of 10. Key risks | The value score should improve as either the price corrects or fundamentals catch up to the current multiple over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRich valuation is often the price of admission for the fastest-growing names in a sector and doesn't by itself predict near-term underperformance. | ||
Freenome's price already sits above the analyst price target by roughly 4.0%, and the engine's asymmetry gate has failed at a negative ratio, signaling the reward-to-risk setup has turned unfavorable.
→StableEstimated upside
- Expectation
- The stock should either pull back toward the analyst target or the target itself should be raised, restoring a positive asymmetry ratio over the next 12 months.
CounterA stock trading above target can keep running if the target is stale and underlying growth continues to outpace what analysts modeled.
Freenome's quality score of 2.4 sits below the 4.0 floor, reflecting a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score and overall quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months.
CounterFor a high-growth diagnostics company still scaling commercially, near-term Piotroski-style fundamentals are a poor proxy for the eventual quality of the business.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 83, well above typical overbought thresholds, while still holding above its 200-day moving average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool below 70 without a sharp price breakdown over the coming weeks.
CounterExtreme momentum during a genuine re-rating fueled by strong growth can persist longer than typical overbought signals would suggest.
Freenome ranks as an industry growth leader on the engine's peer-rank growth metric.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The growth peer-rank should stay elevated as revenue growth continues outpacing industry peers over the next 12 months.
CounterTriple-digit growth off a small revenue base is easy to sustain briefly but difficult to maintain as the base scales.
The engine flags rich valuation as a key risk, consistent with a value score of just 2.4 out of 10.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The value score should improve as either the price corrects or fundamentals catch up to the current multiple over the next 12 months.
CounterRich valuation is often the price of admission for the fastest-growing names in a sector and doesn't by itself predict near-term underperformance.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 106% YoY
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 70)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 2.6 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_FLAG:5.01
Reward-to-Risk
-0.01
Upside
-0.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.01.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.4, Value at 2.4, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio rises above 1.5, reversing the current negative -0.3 reading.
- P2Quality Below Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.4.
- P3Overbought Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 while price also breaks below the 200-day moving average.
- P4Industry Leading Growth Rank
Trip ifThe growth peer-rank falls below the 5th decile (a rank below 5.0).
- P5Rich Valuation Risk
Trip ifThe value score rises above 5.0 from the current 2.4.