Value
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
FRNM · Why this verdict
Why Freenome (FRNM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Freenome is a diagnostics growth story with 106% YoY growth and 53.8% upside to the analyst target, but weak financial quality, negative momentum and a speculative profile with a -42% drawdown make it high risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Freenome shows strong growth of 106% YoY, ranking as an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 50% YoY over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a small revenue base makes percentage growth easy to inflate and hard to sustain. | ||
Business quality is weak, with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and an overall quality score of 2.4 against a floor of 4.0. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score improves above 5 as the company scales. | →Stable |
| CounterGross and net margins both score 0, meaning the company is not profitable, and quality confidence is only 0.71. | ||
The price of $10.18 is 53.8% below the haircut analyst target of $15.66, against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 3.59. Upside pct | Price closes part of the gap to the analyst target over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith no profits, earnings or revenue multiples to anchor valuation, the target rests on analyst assumptions that can change quickly. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.1 out of 10, with volume 3.1x average on a selloff and falling on-balance volume, though the 200-day average is still rising 0.7% over 30 days. Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA selloff on heavy volume with a beta component of 9.4 out of 10 volatility shows holders are exiting, and the flat 200-day slope can turn negative quickly. | ||
Institutions are accumulating shares while insiders show no net selling activity over the last 90 days. Insider breakdown | Institutional ownership keeps rising and insiders do not sell. | →Stable |
| CounterInstitutional buying can reverse, and the lack of insider purchases means insiders are not signaling confidence either. | ||
Freenome shows strong growth of 106% YoY, ranking as an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 50% YoY over the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33, and a small revenue base makes percentage growth easy to inflate and hard to sustain.
Business quality is weak, with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and an overall quality score of 2.4 against a floor of 4.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score improves above 5 as the company scales.
CounterGross and net margins both score 0, meaning the company is not profitable, and quality confidence is only 0.71.
The price of $10.18 is 53.8% below the haircut analyst target of $15.66, against 15.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 3.59.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price closes part of the gap to the analyst target over 12 months.
CounterWith no profits, earnings or revenue multiples to anchor valuation, the target rests on analyst assumptions that can change quickly.
Momentum is weak at 3.1 out of 10, with volume 3.1x average on a selloff and falling on-balance volume, though the 200-day average is still rising 0.7% over 30 days.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 and price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterA selloff on heavy volume with a beta component of 9.4 out of 10 volatility shows holders are exiting, and the flat 200-day slope can turn negative quickly.
Institutions are accumulating shares while insiders show no net selling activity over the last 90 days.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Institutional ownership keeps rising and insiders do not sell.
CounterInstitutional buying can reverse, and the lack of insider purchases means insiders are not signaling confidence either.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 106% YoY
Momentum
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 19, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 70%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.9 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.4 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:5.01
Reward-to-Risk
3.21
Upside
+48.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 19, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.4<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 3.21.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.4, Quality at 2.4, and Peer rank at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth 106 Percent
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 50% YoY from the current 106%.
- P2Weak Financial Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 5 from the current 2.
- P3Large Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $12, less than 18% above the current $10.18.
- P4Selloff Weak Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.1.
- P5Institutional Accumulation No Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap over 90 days.