Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.32
- ▸Attractively valued
FMNB · Why this verdict
Why Farmers National Banc (FMNB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Farmers National Banc is a fast-growing bank with 36% growth, a 4.6% dividend and a forward P/E of 8.8x, but the price is 5.8% above the analyst target, momentum is soft, and analyst coverage is light.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Farmers National is growing about 36% year over year and is an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year growth stays above 15% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 36% growth rate is hard to sustain for a regional bank and may reflect a one-off boost such as an acquisition. | ||
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 8.8x with a PEG of 0.32. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 11x while growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe price is already about 5.8% above the $14.73 analyst target, so the market has re-rated the stock. | ||
Farmers National beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 14.6% beat in the latest quarter. Catalyst breakdown | The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe January miss of 14.3% was larger than the typical beat size, and the record is uneven. | ||
The $15.64 price is above the $14.73 analyst target, about 5.8% over it, against 5.5% downside to the stop. Warnings | Analyst targets are raised toward the price over the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means targets update slowly, and strong growth could drive upgrades. | ||
The dividend yields 4.6%, supported by margins of about 29% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9. Quality breakdown | The dividend is maintained at a yield of at least 4% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe company has no competitive moat, and a moderate dividend safety score means a payout could be cut if credit costs rise. | ||
Farmers National is growing about 36% year over year and is an industry growth leader.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year growth stays above 15% over the next 12 months.
CounterA 36% growth rate is hard to sustain for a regional bank and may reflect a one-off boost such as an acquisition.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 8.8x with a PEG of 0.32.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 11x while growth continues.
CounterThe price is already about 5.8% above the $14.73 analyst target, so the market has re-rated the stock.
Farmers National beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 14.6% beat in the latest quarter.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe January miss of 14.3% was larger than the typical beat size, and the record is uneven.
The $15.64 price is above the $14.73 analyst target, about 5.8% over it, against 5.5% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the price over the next two quarters.
CounterLight analyst coverage means targets update slowly, and strong growth could drive upgrades.
The dividend yields 4.6%, supported by margins of about 29% and a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained at a yield of at least 4% over the next 12 months.
CounterThe company has no competitive moat, and a moderate dividend safety score means a payout could be cut if credit costs rise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.9 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.32 (n=7)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.4 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $57,900 (0.006% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.8 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 0.1 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 4.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.04
Upside
-7.2%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.8; weakest: Technical at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.8, Value at 7.9, and Momentum at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9, and Sentiment at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Leader
Trip ifYear-over-year growth falls below 10% from the current 36%.
- P2Cheap Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 8.8x.
- P3Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Target Exceeded Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 15% from the current 5.8%.
- P5Dividend Income Support
Trip ifNet margin falls below 22% from the current 29%.