Value
6.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.93
FET · Why this verdict
Why Forum Energy Technologies (FET) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Forum Energy Technologies has beaten earnings four quarters in a row with revenue growing from $193.3M to $226.2M in a year, but quality is below the 4.0 minimum, 80% of revenue is concentrated in one product category, and the $87.17 price is 11.3% above the $77.35 analyst target ahead of earnings in 5 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, including $1.16 in July 2026, and quarterly revenue rose from $193.3M in March 2025 to $226.2M in June 2026. Catalyst breakdown | Quarterly revenue should exceed the $233.4M estimate and the beat streak extend at the 2026-10-29 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAfter four beats the stock sits near its 52-week high, and a mixed-source revenue series offers limited cross-checking of the growth trend. | ||
Quality scores 3.6, below the 4.0 minimum, with ROE and net margin at 0.0 and no competitive moat, despite a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Bear case | Quality score should rise above 4.0 as margins improve. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and current ratio score of 7.6 show improving fundamentals that the quality score may lag. | ||
Consumable products and activity-based equipment make up 80.0% of revenue, tying results to drilling and completion activity. Bear case | Revenue should keep growing above 5% YoY as oilfield activity holds. | →Stable |
| CounterConsumables are replaced regularly so demand is recurring, and growth in earnings (growth score 10.0) shows the model is working. | ||
At $87.17 the stock is 11.3% above the $77.35 analyst target, with 12.2% downside to the stop, and insiders sold $2.55M over 10 sales (0.260% of market cap). Upside pct | Analysts should raise targets above $87.17 or price ease toward the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA golden cross with price above all moving averages and perfect earnings beats suggests targets may be catching up. | ||
Earnings beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, including $1.16 in July 2026, and quarterly revenue rose from $193.3M in March 2025 to $226.2M in June 2026.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed the $233.4M estimate and the beat streak extend at the 2026-10-29 report.
CounterAfter four beats the stock sits near its 52-week high, and a mixed-source revenue series offers limited cross-checking of the growth trend.
Quality scores 3.6, below the 4.0 minimum, with ROE and net margin at 0.0 and no competitive moat, despite a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score should rise above 4.0 as margins improve.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and current ratio score of 7.6 show improving fundamentals that the quality score may lag.
Consumable products and activity-based equipment make up 80.0% of revenue, tying results to drilling and completion activity.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing above 5% YoY as oilfield activity holds.
CounterConsumables are replaced regularly so demand is recurring, and growth in earnings (growth score 10.0) shows the model is working.
At $87.17 the stock is 11.3% above the $77.35 analyst target, with 12.2% downside to the stop, and insiders sold $2.55M over 10 sales (0.260% of market cap).
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts should raise targets above $87.17 or price ease toward the 200-day average.
CounterA golden cross with price above all moving averages and perfect earnings beats suggests targets may be catching up.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 2.1 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 211% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 6.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.6 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.32 (n=5)
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,646,133 (0.277% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.5 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 6.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 9.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 86.7% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (4)
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:108d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- INSIDER:0.28%=MODERATE
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.03
Upside
-0.3%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.70. Top dim: Catalyst at 8.4; weakest: Momentum at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 8.4, Technical at 7.9, and Growth at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 5.2, and Quality at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Growing Revenue
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Below Floor Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score stays below 3.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Product Concentration Risk
Trip ifConsumable products and activity-based equipment exceed 90% of revenue.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price drops to $81.07 or lower, the stop-loss level, from the current $87.17.