Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.73
- ▸Attractively valued
FBIZ · Why this verdict
Why First Business Financial Servic (FBIZ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
First Business Financial is a bank with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings-beat streak, 34% margins and a 10.8x forward P/E, but the price is 9.1% above the analyst target and overbought near its 52-week high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank earns margins of about 34%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and a return on equity superior to peers, though it has no moat. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 28% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith no competitive moat, margin gains can be competed away and the quality score is only 5.7. | ||
First Business beat estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, with an average surprise of 12.5% and a 16.6% beat in the latest quarter. Catalyst breakdown | The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats may reflect conservative estimates, and a streak of four quarters is a short sample. | ||
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.74, which is attractive for a bank. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 13x while earnings grow. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe price is already about 9.1% above the $68.56 analyst target, so the low multiple may be priced in. | ||
The $75.40 price is above the $68.56 analyst target, about 9.1% over it, against 9.8% downside to the stop. Warnings | Analyst targets are raised toward the price, or the price retraces toward the target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFour straight beats could push analysts to lift targets and keep the stock rising. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 80 and sits 2.3% below its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | The price consolidates above its 200-day average without a sharp reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterA volume surge of 4.5 times average on an up move shows strong demand that can sustain the trend. | ||
The bank earns margins of about 34%, a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and a return on equity superior to peers, though it has no moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 28% over the next 12 months.
CounterWith no competitive moat, margin gains can be competed away and the quality score is only 5.7.
First Business beat estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, with an average surprise of 12.5% and a 16.6% beat in the latest quarter.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterBeats may reflect conservative estimates, and a streak of four quarters is a short sample.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 10.8x with a PEG of 0.74, which is attractive for a bank.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 13x while earnings grow.
CounterThe price is already about 9.1% above the $68.56 analyst target, so the low multiple may be priced in.
The $75.40 price is above the $68.56 analyst target, about 9.1% over it, against 9.8% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the price, or the price retraces toward the target.
CounterFour straight beats could push analysts to lift targets and keep the stock rising.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 80 and sits 2.3% below its 52-week high.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price consolidates above its 200-day average without a sharp reversal.
CounterA volume surge of 4.5 times average on an up move shows strong demand that can sustain the trend.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 34%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 4.9 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.7 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 86)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.4 |
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.49 (n=4)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $47,381 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 7.3 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 5.0 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 9.0 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:87d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.85
Upside
-10.7%
Downside
12.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.5; weakest: Technical at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.5, Momentum at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Growth at 4.4, and Peer rank at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.85 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 10.8x.
- P3Strong Margins Superior Roe
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 34%.
- P4Target Exceeded Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 20% from the current 9.1%.
- P5Overbought Near High
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $71.80 stop level from the current $75.40.