FAC · Why this verdict
Why Factorial Energy (FAC) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Factorial Energy is a deeply drawn-down (-82%) electrical equipment stock with 147% upside to the analyst target, but quality is below the floor, the trend is down, a recent quarter was a large miss, and the put/call ratio is 9.0.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst target of $11.05 is 147.2% above the $4.47 price, against 13.9% downside to the stop. Sentiment breakdown | The price rises toward the target, exceeding $6 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the 191% upside signal is dampened, and the stock is 82% off its high, so targets may be stale. | ||
The business shows quality concerns, with a quality score of 2.5 that is below the 4.0 minimum. Quality breakdown | The quality score rises above 4.0 as profitability improves. | →Stable |
| CounterAn early-stage company can show poor quality scores while building scale, and the quality score may lag a real inflection. | ||
The stock is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 7.9% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend. Momentum breakdown | The price recovers above its 200-day moving average within 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume suggests accumulation that may signal a bottom. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 9.00 and implied volatility is 121%, showing heavy bearish positioning. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio falls below 3 as sentiment stabilizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy put activity may be hedging by holders and options volume on a small float can be a poor signal. | ||
The last reported quarter was a miss (EPS of -$0.86 against an estimate of -$0.04), and the next earnings report is 9 days away. Earnings | The next report narrows the loss to better than -$0.20 per share. | →Stable |
| CounterA single quarter with a large one-off charge may overstate underlying weakness, and a better result could spark a rebound from depressed levels. | ||
The analyst target of $11.05 is 147.2% above the $4.47 price, against 13.9% downside to the stop.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The price rises toward the target, exceeding $6 within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the 191% upside signal is dampened, and the stock is 82% off its high, so targets may be stale.
The business shows quality concerns, with a quality score of 2.5 that is below the 4.0 minimum.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The quality score rises above 4.0 as profitability improves.
CounterAn early-stage company can show poor quality scores while building scale, and the quality score may lag a real inflection.
The stock is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 7.9% over 30 days, a confirmed downtrend.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price recovers above its 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterRising on-balance volume suggests accumulation that may signal a bottom.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 9.00 and implied volatility is 121%, showing heavy bearish positioning.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio falls below 3 as sentiment stabilizes.
CounterHeavy put activity may be hedging by holders and options volume on a small float can be a poor signal.
The last reported quarter was a miss (EPS of -$0.86 against an estimate of -$0.04), and the next earnings report is 9 days away.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next report narrows the loss to better than -$0.20 per share.
CounterA single quarter with a large one-off charge may overstate underlying weakness, and a better result could spark a rebound from depressed levels.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 213%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 9.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 9.00
- ▸High IV: 114%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (3)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_FLAG:5.01
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+32.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -84% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.0<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 7.2 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Technical at 5.9, and Peer rank at 5.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Catalyst at 2.5, and Quality at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 50% from the current 147.2%.
- P2Weak Business Quality
Trip ifQuality score stays below 2.0 from the current 2.5.
- P3Confirmed DowntrendTripped
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $4.16 stop level from the current $4.47.
- P4Bearish Options And Volatility
Trip ifPut/call ratio exceeds 12 from the current 9.00.
- P5Earnings Miss And Near Term Report
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below -$0.50 in the next report.