Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
EXK · Why this verdict
Why Endeavour Silver (EXK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward multiple of approximately 7 times earnings with analyst consensus targets implying roughly 51% upside from the current price — a discount the data characterizes as attractively valued with a PEG ratio near zero. Value | The gap between the current price and the analyst consensus target narrows by at least half over the next 12 months, with price recovering toward the $13 range. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is thin at only three analysts, so the consensus target carries less statistical weight than a broader coverage set; the apparent discount may reflect information asymmetry or limited institutional interest rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
Free cash flow margin is flagged at approximately 2% with a FCF yield near 0.5% — a thin cash generation profile that leaves the business with limited cushion for operational setbacks or commodity price declines. Quality | Free cash flow margin expands above 8% within the next four quarters, demonstrating that operating improvements are translating into meaningful cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is the maximum 9 out of 9, indicating that accounting-quality signals across dimensions are excellent; the thin FCF margin may reflect a growth or expansion phase rather than a structural deficiency in the underlying business. | ||
While the stock is currently below its 200-day moving average, the long-term moving average itself is still rising at approximately 6.6% over the past month and on-balance volume is accumulating — a profile the data characterizes as a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal. Momentum | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within the next three months and on-balance volume continues to trend higher, confirming the uptrend is intact. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock sits near the low end of its 52-week range and a recent gap-up of approximately 8% may leave it vulnerable to a near-term pullback; if the moving average slope turns flat or negative, the pullback-in-uptrend characterization breaks down. | ||
Two of the three most recently reported quarters prior to the latest result were misses with negative surprises exceeding 55% and 139% respectively — a track record that makes future earnings delivery difficult to underwrite with confidence. Earnings | EPS surprise exceeds 0% for 3 consecutive quarters, demonstrating a return to consistent delivery and rehabilitating the earnings track record. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter delivered a surprise of approximately 125% above consensus, suggesting the prior misses may have coincided with an operational transition now behind the company — if that represents a structural improvement, the historical miss pattern may be less predictive going forward. | ||
The stock trades at a forward multiple of approximately 7 times earnings with analyst consensus targets implying roughly 51% upside from the current price — a discount the data characterizes as attractively valued with a PEG ratio near zero.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- The gap between the current price and the analyst consensus target narrows by at least half over the next 12 months, with price recovering toward the $13 range.
CounterAnalyst coverage is thin at only three analysts, so the consensus target carries less statistical weight than a broader coverage set; the apparent discount may reflect information asymmetry or limited institutional interest rather than a genuine mispricing.
Free cash flow margin is flagged at approximately 2% with a FCF yield near 0.5% — a thin cash generation profile that leaves the business with limited cushion for operational setbacks or commodity price declines.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin expands above 8% within the next four quarters, demonstrating that operating improvements are translating into meaningful cash generation.
CounterThe Piotroski F-Score is the maximum 9 out of 9, indicating that accounting-quality signals across dimensions are excellent; the thin FCF margin may reflect a growth or expansion phase rather than a structural deficiency in the underlying business.
While the stock is currently below its 200-day moving average, the long-term moving average itself is still rising at approximately 6.6% over the past month and on-balance volume is accumulating — a profile the data characterizes as a pullback within an uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within the next three months and on-balance volume continues to trend higher, confirming the uptrend is intact.
CounterThe stock sits near the low end of its 52-week range and a recent gap-up of approximately 8% may leave it vulnerable to a near-term pullback; if the moving average slope turns flat or negative, the pullback-in-uptrend characterization breaks down.
Two of the three most recently reported quarters prior to the latest result were misses with negative surprises exceeding 55% and 139% respectively — a track record that makes future earnings delivery difficult to underwrite with confidence.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise exceeds 0% for 3 consecutive quarters, demonstrating a return to consistent delivery and rehabilitating the earnings track record.
CounterThe most recent quarter delivered a surprise of approximately 125% above consensus, suggesting the prior misses may have coincided with an operational transition now behind the company — if that represents a structural improvement, the historical miss pattern may be less predictive going forward.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Endeavour Silver offers a substantial valuation discount — with analyst targets implying roughly 51% upside and a forward multiple of approximately 7 times earnings — and a long-term moving average that remains in an upward slope despite a near-term pullback, but below-average business quality, thin free cash flow margins, and an inconsistent recent earnings track record limit the conviction warranted by the headline valuation opportunity.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 3.5 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 2%, FCF yield 0.6%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 89%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 1.3 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 1.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.1 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.73
- ▸High IV: 91%
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:40d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.32
Upside
+60.5%
Downside
14.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -44% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 4.32 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Sentiment at 6.6, and Momentum at 5.7; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.8, Peer rank at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Valuation Discount Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice rises above $13 for 3 consecutive sessions, reaching the analyst consensus target and eliminating the valuation discount.
- P2Long Term Uptrend Pullback
Trip ifPrice falls below $7.50 and the 200-day moving average slope turns negative, confirming the pullback has become a genuine trend reversal.
- P3Below Average Quality Limits Conviction
Trip ifFree cash flow margin rises above 8% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating improved cash conversion and weakening the quality-deficit concern.
- P4Earnings Volatility Risk
Trip ifEPS surprise exceeds 0% for 3 consecutive quarters, confirming a return to consistent above-estimate delivery.