Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.57
EVR · Why this verdict
Why Evercore (EVR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 26.8% — including a 38.8% beat in the most recent quarter — demonstrating consistent under-promising and over-delivering at a scale unusual across the broad market. Earnings | Sustained earnings beats at an average surprise above 15% over the next two to four quarters would confirm this is structural rather than cyclical. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely large beat rates can reflect a period of unusually low analyst visibility rather than durable management discipline; if consensus estimates are revised sharply higher to match recent results, future beats could be much narrower and the streak perception could fade. | ||
The company carries a return on equity of 42%, operating margins of 16%, a wide economic moat, and a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 — a combination identifying a business that generates durable excess returns and is ranked above most peers on quality metrics. Quality breakdown | Quality holds if operating margins remain above 12% and return on equity stays above 30% for the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong returns in a capital-markets-facing business can be highly cyclical; what looks like a durable moat during an active deal environment may prove more transient when transaction volumes normalize. | ||
Year-over-year earnings growth of 100% has made this one of the fastest-growing businesses among its industry peers — a rate of expansion that justifies a premium multiple if it can be sustained even at a fraction of the current pace. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth decelerating below 30% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters would indicate the high-growth phase is maturing toward normal run rates. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit growth rates rarely persist — they typically reflect a cyclical upturn in advisory or transaction activity rather than permanent structural acceleration; as the comparison base normalizes, growth rates will compress substantially from current levels. | ||
The stock has reached and moved past its near-term resistance target with essentially no upside remaining to that level, meaning new buyers are paying full price without the risk/reward geometry that made earlier entry attractive. Bear case | A meaningful pullback that re-establishes at least 8% of headroom to resistance, or a re-rating of the target above $395, would reopen a favorable entry window. | →Stable |
| CounterIn a strong momentum environment with a golden cross and rising on-balance volume, stocks can extend beyond prior resistance levels; the near-term target may simply need to be revised higher as the improved fundamental outlook becomes more widely recognized. | ||
The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average positive surprise of 26.8% — including a 38.8% beat in the most recent quarter — demonstrating consistent under-promising and over-delivering at a scale unusual across the broad market.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Sustained earnings beats at an average surprise above 15% over the next two to four quarters would confirm this is structural rather than cyclical.
CounterExtremely large beat rates can reflect a period of unusually low analyst visibility rather than durable management discipline; if consensus estimates are revised sharply higher to match recent results, future beats could be much narrower and the streak perception could fade.
The company carries a return on equity of 42%, operating margins of 16%, a wide economic moat, and a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9 — a combination identifying a business that generates durable excess returns and is ranked above most peers on quality metrics.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality holds if operating margins remain above 12% and return on equity stays above 30% for the next four quarters.
CounterStrong returns in a capital-markets-facing business can be highly cyclical; what looks like a durable moat during an active deal environment may prove more transient when transaction volumes normalize.
Year-over-year earnings growth of 100% has made this one of the fastest-growing businesses among its industry peers — a rate of expansion that justifies a premium multiple if it can be sustained even at a fraction of the current pace.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth decelerating below 30% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters would indicate the high-growth phase is maturing toward normal run rates.
CounterTriple-digit growth rates rarely persist — they typically reflect a cyclical upturn in advisory or transaction activity rather than permanent structural acceleration; as the comparison base normalizes, growth rates will compress substantially from current levels.
The stock has reached and moved past its near-term resistance target with essentially no upside remaining to that level, meaning new buyers are paying full price without the risk/reward geometry that made earlier entry attractive.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A meaningful pullback that re-establishes at least 8% of headroom to resistance, or a re-rating of the target above $395, would reopen a favorable entry window.
CounterIn a strong momentum environment with a golden cross and rising on-balance volume, stocks can extend beyond prior resistance levels; the near-term target may simply need to be revised higher as the improved fundamental outlook becomes more widely recognized.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A high-quality business with a wide economic moat, strong returns, and a four-quarter earnings beat streak averaging 26.8% in upside surprise — but the stock has reached and exceeded its near-term resistance target with essentially no room left to that level, meaning new buyers are paying full price without the favorable entry geometry that made earlier positions attractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 9.8 |
| Net margin | 8.2 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 42%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 100% YoY
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,678,595 (0.020% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 7.7 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.6 |
| support resistance | 5.0 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 6.2 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 104.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.90
Upside
-6.9%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 23d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.49>1.3
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.9=NEGATIVE outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.90.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 9.2, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 4.8, Peer rank at 5.2, and Momentum at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.90 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Earnings Beat Cadence
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Quality Business Fundamentals
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters (from current 16%).
- P3Strong Revenue And Earnings Growth
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 30% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price At Target Entry Window Closed
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $395, establishing more than 8% upside from the current price of $365.53.