Value
9.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
ETB · Why this verdict
Why Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Wri (ETB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Buy-Write screens cheap on a PEG basis and is in a confirmed technical breakout, but sits at exhausted upside near its 52-week high with a dividend-safety flag that echoes its below-average quality score.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ETB screens as attractively valued with a PEG ratio of just 0.16, driving a value score of 9.8 out of 10, the strongest dimension in the model. Valuation breakdown | PEG ratio should remain below 0.5 and the value score above 8.0 as long as the valuation gap persists. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG this low for a closed-end covered-call fund may reflect a quirk in how earnings growth is measured for an income-focused vehicle rather than genuine mispricing, and the fund's own growth notes flag declining revenue of -10%. | ||
ETB is in a confirmed technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 67, and bullish MACD, sitting just 1.0% below its 52-week high. Chart pattern detection | The stock should hold above its moving averages and eventually push through to a new 52-week high. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterBeing this close to a 52-week high with the asymmetry gate already flagging upside as exhausted means limited room to run before the setup requires a fresh catalyst. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate is flagged as upside-exhausted, with 0.0% modeled upside to target against 5.0% downside to stop. Gates warning | The asymmetry ratio should stay pinned near zero or negative as long as the stock trades at or above its target price. | →Stable |
| CounterThe current target may not yet reflect potential dividend increases or NAV appreciation in the fund's underlying holdings, which could restore modeled upside. | ||
The catalyst dimension flags a yield-trap warning: the fund's distribution yield is high but the underlying safety score is only 4.2 out of 10, consistent with the key risk of below-average business quality. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety score should climb above 5.0 if the payout-coverage concern resolves over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterCovered-call funds like ETB often sustain high distributions through option premium income even when NAV total-return coverage looks weak on a simple safety score, which may overstate cut risk. | ||
ETB screens as attractively valued with a PEG ratio of just 0.16, driving a value score of 9.8 out of 10, the strongest dimension in the model.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- PEG ratio should remain below 0.5 and the value score above 8.0 as long as the valuation gap persists.
CounterA PEG this low for a closed-end covered-call fund may reflect a quirk in how earnings growth is measured for an income-focused vehicle rather than genuine mispricing, and the fund's own growth notes flag declining revenue of -10%.
ETB is in a confirmed technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, RSI at 67, and bullish MACD, sitting just 1.0% below its 52-week high.
Tripped→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should hold above its moving averages and eventually push through to a new 52-week high.
CounterBeing this close to a 52-week high with the asymmetry gate already flagging upside as exhausted means limited room to run before the setup requires a fresh catalyst.
The engine's asymmetry gate is flagged as upside-exhausted, with 0.0% modeled upside to target against 5.0% downside to stop.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay pinned near zero or negative as long as the stock trades at or above its target price.
CounterThe current target may not yet reflect potential dividend increases or NAV appreciation in the fund's underlying holdings, which could restore modeled upside.
The catalyst dimension flags a yield-trap warning: the fund's distribution yield is high but the underlying safety score is only 4.2 out of 10, consistent with the key risk of below-average business quality.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety score should climb above 5.0 if the payout-coverage concern resolves over the next several quarters.
CounterCovered-call funds like ETB often sustain high distributions through option premium income even when NAV total-return coverage looks weak on a simple safety score, which may overstate cut risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.3 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 1.1 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.4 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.6 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.2/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| beta | 7.5 |
Catalyst
3.5/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 9.8; weakest: Catalyst at 3.5. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 9.2, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.5, Quality at 4.4, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Peg And Earnings Multiple
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.16.
- P2Technical Breakout Near HighTripped
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 from the current 67, signaling the breakout has lost momentum.
- P3Upside Exhausted Asymmetry Warning
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 from the current 0.0, with modeled upside meaningfully exceeding downside.
- P4Dividend Yield Trap Risk
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.2.