Value
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.8 |
| P/S | 5.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.7 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.7x
- ▸PEG: 2.02
ENTG · Why this verdict
Why Entegris (ENTG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A golden cross formation, the stock trading above all key moving averages, a constructive RSI at 63, and rising on-balance volume together indicate broad technical strength and institutional accumulation following the breakout. Momentum breakdown | The stock holds above the 200-day moving average and OBV continues rising over the next two quarters, confirming the breakout is sustained. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extreme gap-up of 6% at the breakout point creates a technical overhang; gaps of this magnitude frequently see partial fill before sustainable upside resumes, and the current RSI at 63 leaves room for mean reversion before the breakout thesis is validated. | ||
Free cash flow running at 168% of net income — paired with a financial health score of 8 out of 9 — indicates the business converts reported earnings into cash at a rate well above most peers, underwriting the quality of reported results. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion stays above 120% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming this is a structural rather than timing-driven characteristic. | →Stable |
| CounterAbove-net-income cash conversion can reflect one-time working-capital or timing benefits; if the elevated conversion normalizes toward 100%, the quality premium the market assigns may compress. | ||
At a forward P/E of 35.2x and a PEG of 1.99, the stock screens expensive, and with just 1.1% headroom to the $164.64 resistance target and a risk/reward of 0.16-to-1 in an unfavorable direction, the current price offers little reward relative to the downside scenario. Valuation breakdown | If the valuation concern resolves, the stock pulls back and the forward P/E compresses below 20x while earnings estimates hold stable, restoring a favorable entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterA rich multiple can persist in the absence of a catalyst to compress it; if earnings continue to beat and momentum sustains, the stock may trade through resistance and re-rate to a higher multiple before any mean reversion occurs. | ||
A put/call ratio of 3.41 — well above neutral levels — indicates that institutional options positioning is skewed heavily toward protection or outright bearish bets, a pattern that often precedes price weakness and suggests the professional investor community sees meaningful downside risk at current levels. Risk breakdown | If institutional caution proves misplaced, the put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and sustains below that level for four consecutive weeks as hedges are unwound. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios sometimes reflect hedging against existing long positions rather than net bearish conviction; a concentrated protective put book can serve as a contrarian bullish signal if the underlying position is large and committed. | ||
A golden cross formation, the stock trading above all key moving averages, a constructive RSI at 63, and rising on-balance volume together indicate broad technical strength and institutional accumulation following the breakout.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock holds above the 200-day moving average and OBV continues rising over the next two quarters, confirming the breakout is sustained.
CounterAn extreme gap-up of 6% at the breakout point creates a technical overhang; gaps of this magnitude frequently see partial fill before sustainable upside resumes, and the current RSI at 63 leaves room for mean reversion before the breakout thesis is validated.
Free cash flow running at 168% of net income — paired with a financial health score of 8 out of 9 — indicates the business converts reported earnings into cash at a rate well above most peers, underwriting the quality of reported results.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion stays above 120% of net income over the next four quarters, confirming this is a structural rather than timing-driven characteristic.
CounterAbove-net-income cash conversion can reflect one-time working-capital or timing benefits; if the elevated conversion normalizes toward 100%, the quality premium the market assigns may compress.
At a forward P/E of 35.2x and a PEG of 1.99, the stock screens expensive, and with just 1.1% headroom to the $164.64 resistance target and a risk/reward of 0.16-to-1 in an unfavorable direction, the current price offers little reward relative to the downside scenario.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If the valuation concern resolves, the stock pulls back and the forward P/E compresses below 20x while earnings estimates hold stable, restoring a favorable entry point.
CounterA rich multiple can persist in the absence of a catalyst to compress it; if earnings continue to beat and momentum sustains, the stock may trade through resistance and re-rate to a higher multiple before any mean reversion occurs.
A put/call ratio of 3.41 — well above neutral levels — indicates that institutional options positioning is skewed heavily toward protection or outright bearish bets, a pattern that often precedes price weakness and suggests the professional investor community sees meaningful downside risk at current levels.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- If institutional caution proves misplaced, the put/call ratio falls below 1.0 and sustains below that level for four consecutive weeks as hedges are unwound.
CounterElevated put/call ratios sometimes reflect hedging against existing long positions rather than net bearish conviction; a concentrated protective put book can serve as a contrarian bullish signal if the underlying position is large and committed.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ENTG has strong technical momentum following a breakout — golden cross, above all moving averages, volume accumulation — and exceptional cash conversion at 168% of net income, but screens expensive at a forward P/E of 35.2x with just 1.1% headroom to the $164.64 resistance target, and the put/call ratio of 3.41 signals institutional investors are positioned defensively at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.0 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 4.1 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 168% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $15,215,641 (0.068% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 4.8 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 6.4 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.1 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 1.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 5.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.74
- ▸High IV: 105%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 27.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.24
Upside
-3.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 27d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.31>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 6.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.24 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 6.9, Catalyst at 6.4, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.1, Value at 3.3, and Momentum at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.24 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Technical Breakout With Accumulation
Trip ifStock falls below the 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day, invalidating the breakout pattern.
- P2Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Expensive Valuation No Near Term Upside
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 20x following a price pullback of more than 20% while earnings estimates remain stable, creating a favorable entry point.
- P4Elevated Put Call Signals Institutional Caution
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 and sustains below that level for 4 consecutive weeks, signaling institutional caution has lifted.