Value
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
EGBN · Why this verdict
Why Eagle Bancorp (EGBN) is rated SELL
Updated
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Eagle Bancorp is a small regional bank whose valuation already prices in most of its modeled upside, while quality and momentum have both broken down and earnings remain volatile.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Eagle Bancorp's quality score of 2.9 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, reflecting no discernible competitive moat in its banking franchise. Quality breakdown | Quality score should climb back above 4.0 over the next few quarters as profitability metrics normalize. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional banks routinely score low on moat metrics that miss franchise value like deposit stickiness, so the low score may understate durability. | ||
The stock has already reached its price target, leaving only -5.1% modeled upside against 6.0% downside for a negative risk/reward asymmetry. Bear case | Modeled upside should turn positive again if the market re-rates the stock higher. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPrice targets get revised upward as fundamentals improve, which could quickly restore positive asymmetry. | ||
Momentum has broken down, with the engine's momentum reading at 3.3 falling short of its 4.5 threshold amid falling on-balance volume. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 to clear the engine's gate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock remains above its 200-day moving average, so the momentum weakness may be short-term noise rather than a trend reversal. | ||
Earnings have swung wildly over the past year, with 2 beats and 2 misses in the last four quarters and an average surprise of 483%. Earnings | The beat/miss ratio should stabilize toward more consistent beats as provisioning normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterA pattern of extreme swings in both directions suggests genuinely unpredictable earnings rather than a stable trend being obscured by noise. | ||
Eagle Bancorp's quality score of 2.9 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, reflecting no discernible competitive moat in its banking franchise.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should climb back above 4.0 over the next few quarters as profitability metrics normalize.
CounterRegional banks routinely score low on moat metrics that miss franchise value like deposit stickiness, so the low score may understate durability.
The stock has already reached its price target, leaving only -5.1% modeled upside against 6.0% downside for a negative risk/reward asymmetry.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Modeled upside should turn positive again if the market re-rates the stock higher.
CounterPrice targets get revised upward as fundamentals improve, which could quickly restore positive asymmetry.
Momentum has broken down, with the engine's momentum reading at 3.3 falling short of its 4.5 threshold amid falling on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 to clear the engine's gate.
CounterThe stock remains above its 200-day moving average, so the momentum weakness may be short-term noise rather than a trend reversal.
Earnings have swung wildly over the past year, with 2 beats and 2 misses in the last four quarters and an average surprise of 483%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat/miss ratio should stabilize toward more consistent beats as provisioning normalizes.
CounterA pattern of extreme swings in both directions suggests genuinely unpredictable earnings rather than a stable trend being obscured by noise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 9.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 0.1 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.6 |
| days to cover | 2.4 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.33
- ▸High IV: 90%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:71d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.26
Upside
-3.4%
Downside
13.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.8<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of -0.26.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Insider at 7.3, and Value at 7.1; the weakest are Quality at 2.6, Peer rank at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.26 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Engine Floor
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 for 2 more consecutive quarterly updates.
- P2Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifUpside_pct stays below 0% for 2 consecutive engine runs.
- P3Momentum Gate Failure
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for 2 more consecutive runs.
- P4Volatile Earnings Track Record
Trip ifMiss_count exceeds 2 misses over the next 4 reported quarters.