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DDSDillard's, Inc.Buy Wait6.0·$560.88-8.62%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Dillard's has delivered four consecutive earnings beats at an average surprise above 28%, and its shares trade at a forward multiple of roughly 16.6 times with a PEG below 0.35—a combination that keeps valuation attractive even as price momentum has softened and the stock sits in a range-bound pattern with a high short-interest overhang.

Thesis pillars

  • Consistent Earnings OutperformanceImproving
  • Quality Balance Sheet ReturnsStable
  • Attractive Valuation Low PegDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Department Stores

Wait for pullback to $555.25. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $560.88. Engine's entry $555.25 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

The Company, originally founded in 1938 by William T. Dillard, was incorporated in Delaware in 1964 (and was reincorporated in Texas in 2025). As of January 31, 2026, we operated 271 Dillard's stores, including 28 clearance centers, and an Internet store at dillards.com offering... Read more

$560.88-18.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#1 of 4 Department Stores
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.32%
IncomeYield0.19%(5y avg 0.25%)Payout2.73%sustainable
Entry $555.25(support + ATR (held))Stop $495.68Target $638.82(resistance)A.R:R -1.8:1
Analyst target$537.00-4.3%3 analysts
$638.82our TP
$560.88price
$537.00mean
$465
$650

Wait for pullback to $555.25. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $560.88. Engine's entry $555.25 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 13, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.87)
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.6
P/E (Fwd)18.0
Mkt Cap$9.6B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn9.9%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta1.19
Dividend0.19%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
3.9
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R -1.8=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $540.89Resistance $651.86

Price Targets

$496
$555
$639
A.Upside-18.6%
A.R:R-1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DDS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $555.25. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $560.88. Engine's entry $555.25 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $638.82 (+13.9%), stop $495.68 (−13.2%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DDS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $638.82 (-18.6% upside). Target $638.82 (+13.9%), stop $495.68 (−13.2%), A.R:R -1.8:1. Stop-loss: $495.68.

What are the risks of investing in DDS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum; Below 200-day MA.

Is DDS overvalued or undervalued?

Dillard's, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about DDS?

11 analysts cover DDS with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $537.

What does Dillard's, Inc. do?The Company, originally founded in 1938 by William T. Dillard, was incorporated in Delaware in 1964 (and was...

The Company, originally founded in 1938 by William T. Dillard, was incorporated in Delaware in 1964 (and was reincorporated in Texas in 2025). As of January 31, 2026, we operated 271 Dillard's stores, including 28 clearance centers, and an Internet store at dillards.com offering a wide selection of merchandise including fashion apparel for women, men and children, accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. The Company also operates a general contracti

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