Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
DCBO · Why this verdict
Why Docebo (DCBO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Docebo combines a consistent earnings beat streak, compounder-quality fundamentals, and a cheap valuation with a confirmed technical downtrend that has hard-blocked new buying under the engine's death-cross gate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bull case cites a strong growth profile, with a growth score of 8.1 and analyst-implied upside of 56% versus the current $18.24 price, alongside superior ROE versus peers. Bull case | Growth score should remain elevated above 6 and the analyst upside gap should narrow toward 0% via price appreciation, not target cuts, over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue growth of 6.1% is modest for a company described as having a strong growth profile, so the growth score may lean more heavily on earnings growth and margin quality than on top-line acceleration, which is more exposed if the macro environment softens. | ||
The stock screens attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.12, alongside compounder-quality metrics including a 133% ROE, 125% FCF/NI cash conversion, a wide economic moat, and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score. Quality breakdown | Value score should remain elevated above 7 and quality metrics such as ROE and Piotroski F-Score should hold near current strong levels over the next 12 months. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterA forward P/E of 9.0x for a software company with a wide moat and strong ROE is unusually cheap, which could indicate the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown that the historical quality metrics don't yet reflect. | ||
The company beat consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of 26.26%, 2.25%, and 32.61%, averaging 14.73%, cited in the bull case as a strong earnings beat streak. Bull case | Earnings beat rate should stay at 3-of-4 or better with average surprise remaining positive over the next four quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe most recent quarter came in only in-line at -2.19% surprise, which could signal the beat streak is decelerating just as the stock enters a confirmed technical downtrend. | ||
The V9 death-cross gate hard-blocked the position, with price below the 200-day moving average and a -8.7%/30-day MA slope confirming a downtrend, alongside a -45% drawdown from the 52-week high. Engine gate (failed) | The death-cross gate should clear and the stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months if the downtrend reverses. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterThe setup is already classified as RECOVERY, with MACD improving and RSI back to a neutral 50, suggesting the technical damage may already be stabilizing despite the still-active hard block. | ||
The bull case cites a strong growth profile, with a growth score of 8.1 and analyst-implied upside of 56% versus the current $18.24 price, alongside superior ROE versus peers.
↑ImprovingBull case
- Expectation
- Growth score should remain elevated above 6 and the analyst upside gap should narrow toward 0% via price appreciation, not target cuts, over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue growth of 6.1% is modest for a company described as having a strong growth profile, so the growth score may lean more heavily on earnings growth and margin quality than on top-line acceleration, which is more exposed if the macro environment softens.
The stock screens attractively valued with a forward P/E of 9.0x and a PEG of 0.12, alongside compounder-quality metrics including a 133% ROE, 125% FCF/NI cash conversion, a wide economic moat, and an 8/9 Piotroski F-Score.
Tripped↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Value score should remain elevated above 7 and quality metrics such as ROE and Piotroski F-Score should hold near current strong levels over the next 12 months.
CounterA forward P/E of 9.0x for a software company with a wide moat and strong ROE is unusually cheap, which could indicate the market is pricing in a structural growth slowdown that the historical quality metrics don't yet reflect.
The company beat consensus estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with surprises of 26.26%, 2.25%, and 32.61%, averaging 14.73%, cited in the bull case as a strong earnings beat streak.
↑ImprovingBull case
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate should stay at 3-of-4 or better with average surprise remaining positive over the next four quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter came in only in-line at -2.19% surprise, which could signal the beat streak is decelerating just as the stock enters a confirmed technical downtrend.
The V9 death-cross gate hard-blocked the position, with price below the 200-day moving average and a -8.7%/30-day MA slope confirming a downtrend, alongside a -45% drawdown from the 52-week high.
Tripped↑ImprovingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death-cross gate should clear and the stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months if the downtrend reverses.
CounterThe setup is already classified as RECOVERY, with MACD improving and RSI back to a neutral 50, suggesting the technical damage may already be stabilizing despite the still-active hard block.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.6 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 3.3 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 8.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 195%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 129% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.67 (n=3)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 4.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Above max pain $12
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.96
Upside
+14.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.0<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.96.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.9, Sentiment at 7.9, and Value at 7.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8, Technical at 2.9, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls to 1 of 4 quarters or fewer, or average surprise falls below 0%, breaking the current 3-of-4 beat streak.
- P2Attractive Valuation Compounder QualityTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x (from the current 9.0x) or Piotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 (from 8.9).
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Death Cross BlockTripped
Trip ifPrice closes back above its 200-day moving average and the death-cross gate clears, or drawdown from the 52-week high narrows to less than 30% (from -45%).
- P4Strong Growth Profile Analyst Upside
Trip ifGrowth score falls below 5.0 (from the current 8.1), or analyst-implied upside compresses below 20% (from 56%).