Value
2.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.4 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 39.4x
- ▸Expensive valuation
DBRG · Why this verdict
Why DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The two most recently reported quarters each missed consensus earnings — by 60.0% in the latest and 12.9% in the prior quarter — suggesting execution is lagging the reported revenue growth trajectory and creating uncertainty about earnings quality. Earnings | The miss streak reverses as the next quarterly result beats consensus by more than 10%, demonstrating that revenue growth is beginning to convert into reported earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterThe four-quarter average earnings surprise remains positive (driven by a 319.58% beat in a single quarter), and the alternating beat-miss pattern may reflect lumpy recognition rather than a structural execution problem. | ||
Year-over-year revenue growth of 59% places this asset manager among the fastest-growing in its peer group, suggesting strong inflows into fee-earning assets and expanding deal activity in digital infrastructure. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 30% year-over-year for the next four quarters, confirming the trajectory is structural rather than concentrated in a single recognition event. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recently reported quarters both missed earnings consensus — by 60% in the latest — raising the question of whether high revenue growth is translating into earnings power at the pace the market had anticipated. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 39.3 times leaves virtually no margin of safety — if earnings growth disappoints from the current trajectory, the multiple has substantial room to compress and the stock has substantial room to fall. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple re-rates toward 25 times as earnings growth either accelerates to justify the premium or the price adjusts to a more defensible entry level. | →Stable |
| CounterIndustry-leading revenue growth of 59% year-over-year can justify elevated multiples for asset managers in high-growth digital infrastructure segments; if fee-earning AUM inflows accelerate, earnings could grow into the current multiple without requiring a price correction. | ||
Free cash flow is negative at 28% below net income, meaning reported earnings are not converting into cash — a red flag for earnings quality given the high revenue growth rate. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a share of net income turns positive (exceeds 0%) within four quarters, confirming that earnings are beginning to translate into real cash generation. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset management businesses in a growth and fundraising phase frequently carry temporarily negative free cash flow due to compensation-timing and fund-setup costs that do not reflect long-run cash economics — the gap may close as the fundraising cycle matures. | ||
The two most recently reported quarters each missed consensus earnings — by 60.0% in the latest and 12.9% in the prior quarter — suggesting execution is lagging the reported revenue growth trajectory and creating uncertainty about earnings quality.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The miss streak reverses as the next quarterly result beats consensus by more than 10%, demonstrating that revenue growth is beginning to convert into reported earnings.
CounterThe four-quarter average earnings surprise remains positive (driven by a 319.58% beat in a single quarter), and the alternating beat-miss pattern may reflect lumpy recognition rather than a structural execution problem.
Year-over-year revenue growth of 59% places this asset manager among the fastest-growing in its peer group, suggesting strong inflows into fee-earning assets and expanding deal activity in digital infrastructure.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 30% year-over-year for the next four quarters, confirming the trajectory is structural rather than concentrated in a single recognition event.
CounterThe two most recently reported quarters both missed earnings consensus — by 60% in the latest — raising the question of whether high revenue growth is translating into earnings power at the pace the market had anticipated.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 39.3 times leaves virtually no margin of safety — if earnings growth disappoints from the current trajectory, the multiple has substantial room to compress and the stock has substantial room to fall.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple re-rates toward 25 times as earnings growth either accelerates to justify the premium or the price adjusts to a more defensible entry level.
CounterIndustry-leading revenue growth of 59% year-over-year can justify elevated multiples for asset managers in high-growth digital infrastructure segments; if fee-earning AUM inflows accelerate, earnings could grow into the current multiple without requiring a price correction.
Free cash flow is negative at 28% below net income, meaning reported earnings are not converting into cash — a red flag for earnings quality given the high revenue growth rate.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a share of net income turns positive (exceeds 0%) within four quarters, confirming that earnings are beginning to translate into real cash generation.
CounterAsset management businesses in a growth and fundraising phase frequently carry temporarily negative free cash flow due to compensation-timing and fund-setup costs that do not reflect long-run cash economics — the gap may close as the fundraising cycle matures.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Industry-leading revenue growth of 59% year-over-year is undercut by consecutive earnings misses in the two most recent quarters, a forward multiple of 39.3 times that leaves no margin of safety, negative free cash flow, and a stock already trading above the measured take-profit level — the current setup is unfavorable despite the growth profile.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -28% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 24 (fail)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 59% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 9.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 2.9 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 0.9 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 130%
Catalyst
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 25.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.92
Upside
-13.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.46>1.3, MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.92 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 5.9, and Insider at 5.9; the weakest are Value at 2.6, Peer rank at 4.2, and Momentum at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.92 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Industry Leading Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifEPS beats consensus by more than 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the miss trend.
- P3Premium Valuation No Margin Of Safety
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 25x for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Negative Free Cash Flow Earnings Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive (FCF exceeds $0) for 2 consecutive quarters.