Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
CRSR · Why this verdict
Why Corsair Gaming (CRSR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Corsair Gaming screens statistically cheap with strong cash conversion and a solid Piotroski score, but declining revenue, a sub-floor quality score, negative asymmetry, and 18% short interest drive the engine's exit recommendation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Corsair trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.02 and a forward P/E of 11.6x, screening as deeply undervalued relative to its earnings growth profile. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio remains below 0.3 and forward P/E stays under 15x over the next 12 months if the cheap valuation persists. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue is declining 4% YoY, and the analyst target has already been reached with only -13.9% theoretical upside, suggesting the cheap multiple already reflects limited growth expectations. | ||
Corsair converts 842% of net income into free cash flow and holds a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating high-quality earnings even amid declining revenue. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion stays above 200% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next fiscal year. | →Stable |
| CounterThe overall quality score of 3.8 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, and 'no competitive moat' suggests the strong cash conversion may not be durable if competitive pressure intensifies. | ||
Corsair's asymmetry ratio is negative at -1.06, with the analyst target already reached, signaling the engine's risk/reward framework views the stock as having exhausted its near-term upside. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive within 2 quarters for the setup to become attractive again. | →Stable |
| CounterA resumption of earnings beats could prompt analyst target upgrades that mechanically restore positive asymmetry. | ||
Corsair trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, a bullish technical signal despite fundamental quality sitting below the engine's floor. Momentum breakdown | Price remains above the 200-day moving average through the next 2 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn 18% short interest and 75% implied volatility suggest a meaningful contingent of the market is positioned for a technical breakdown. | ||
An 18% short interest combined with below-average business quality reflects meaningful bearish positioning against Corsair, consistent with the engine's overall exit recommendation. Key risks | Short interest declines below 12% of float over the next 2 quarters if bearish sentiment eases. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest alongside declining revenue and a sub-floor quality score could instead be a leading indicator that the stock has further to fall. | ||
Corsair trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.02 and a forward P/E of 11.6x, screening as deeply undervalued relative to its earnings growth profile.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio remains below 0.3 and forward P/E stays under 15x over the next 12 months if the cheap valuation persists.
CounterRevenue is declining 4% YoY, and the analyst target has already been reached with only -13.9% theoretical upside, suggesting the cheap multiple already reflects limited growth expectations.
Corsair converts 842% of net income into free cash flow and holds a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating high-quality earnings even amid declining revenue.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion stays above 200% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or higher over the next fiscal year.
CounterThe overall quality score of 3.8 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, and 'no competitive moat' suggests the strong cash conversion may not be durable if competitive pressure intensifies.
Corsair's asymmetry ratio is negative at -1.06, with the analyst target already reached, signaling the engine's risk/reward framework views the stock as having exhausted its near-term upside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive within 2 quarters for the setup to become attractive again.
CounterA resumption of earnings beats could prompt analyst target upgrades that mechanically restore positive asymmetry.
Corsair trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, a bullish technical signal despite fundamental quality sitting below the engine's floor.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price remains above the 200-day moving average through the next 2 quarters.
CounterAn 18% short interest and 75% implied volatility suggest a meaningful contingent of the market is positioned for a technical breakdown.
An 18% short interest combined with below-average business quality reflects meaningful bearish positioning against Corsair, consistent with the engine's overall exit recommendation.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 12% of float over the next 2 quarters if bearish sentiment eases.
CounterHigh short interest alongside declining revenue and a sub-floor quality score could instead be a leading indicator that the stock has further to fall.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 237% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.2 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 2.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.8 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸High short interest: 23%
- ▸High IV: 102%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.96
Upside
-14.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.86>1.3, MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.96 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.7, Value at 6.3, and Growth at 6.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4, and Quality at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Peg Valuation CheapnessTripped
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -8% YoY in the next reported quarter, confirming deterioration rather than undervaluation.
- P2Cash Conversion Quality Strength
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 100% or the Piotroski F-Score drops below 6 at the next annual assessment.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Exit Signal
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio stays below -0.5 for 2 consecutive quarterly refreshes.
- P4Bullish Technical Momentum
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days, or short interest rises above 25%.
- P5Short Interest Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float while the quality score remains below 4.0.