Value
9.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.54
- ▸Attractively valued
CRMD · Why this verdict
Why CorMedix (CRMD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CorMedix is a very high-quality, fast-growing biotech with 156% revenue growth and 169% analyst upside, but the stock is in a confirmed downtrend, short interest is 19%, earnings are expected to fall about 83%, and three customers account for 79% of sales.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
CorMedix grew revenue 156% year over year with a 55% return on equity and 40% margins. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 50% year over year and margins above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth from a new product launch fades quickly, and earnings are expected to decline about 83%, so current profitability may be a peak. | ||
The analyst target of $13.34 is 134.2% above the $5.695 price, against 15.0% downside to the stop. Targets | The price rises above $8 over the next 12 months as the market recognizes earnings power. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe shares are down 56% from their 52-week high, and analyst targets may be stale if earnings are about to fall. | ||
The top three customers account for 79.0% of revenue, so losing one would sharply cut sales. Bear case | Customer concentration declines as new customers are added. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConcentrated distributor relationships are common in specialty pharma and may be stable under long-term contracts. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline about 83%, with forward P/E of 16x against a trailing 3x, so current earnings look like a peak. Warnings | Forward earnings estimates stabilize and the next quarterly report beats the estimate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEstimates after a strong quarter often undershoot, and the company beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day average with falling on-balance volume, and 19% of shares are sold short. Key risks | The price recovers above its 200-day moving average within 12 months and short interest declines. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest with high quality can set up a squeeze, and an RSI of 29 shows an oversold reading. | ||
CorMedix grew revenue 156% year over year with a 55% return on equity and 40% margins.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 50% year over year and margins above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth from a new product launch fades quickly, and earnings are expected to decline about 83%, so current profitability may be a peak.
The analyst target of $13.34 is 134.2% above the $5.695 price, against 15.0% downside to the stop.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- The price rises above $8 over the next 12 months as the market recognizes earnings power.
CounterThe shares are down 56% from their 52-week high, and analyst targets may be stale if earnings are about to fall.
The top three customers account for 79.0% of revenue, so losing one would sharply cut sales.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Customer concentration declines as new customers are added.
CounterConcentrated distributor relationships are common in specialty pharma and may be stable under long-term contracts.
Earnings are expected to decline about 83%, with forward P/E of 16x against a trailing 3x, so current earnings look like a peak.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Forward earnings estimates stabilize and the next quarterly report beats the estimate.
CounterEstimates after a strong quarter often undershoot, and the company beat in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day average with falling on-balance volume, and 19% of shares are sold short.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- The price recovers above its 200-day moving average within 12 months and short interest declines.
CounterHigh short interest with high quality can set up a squeeze, and an RSI of 29 shows an oversold reading.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 55%
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.3 |
- ▸Strong growth: 156% YoY
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 2.9 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.1x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.6 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 184%
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.6 |
| quality rank | 9.0 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 19% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 112%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_B_EXCEPTIONAL_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:9.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
9.83
Upside
+147.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 28, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (9.3) with weak momentum (3.0)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -59% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.0<4.5 outcome against Quality at 9.3 and asymmetric R:R of 9.83.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 9.3, Value at 9.2, and Peer rank at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8, and Insider at 6.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 9.83 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Growth And Profitability
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 25% from the current 156%.
- P2Large Upside To Target
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 40% from the current 134.2%.
- P3Customer Concentration Risk
Trip ifTop three customers exceeds 90% of revenue from the current 79.0%.
- P4Earnings Decline Ahead
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below $0.15 from the latest $0.29.
- P5Downtrend And Short Interest
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $4.87 stop level from the current $5.695.