Value
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 9.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.53
- ▸Attractively valued
CRMD · Why this verdict
Why CorMedix (CRMD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CorMedix combines elite-quality fundamentals and a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak with a technically confirmed downtrend and short-squeeze setup, making it a quality-value name awaiting a momentum inflection.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
CorMedix shows elite quality metrics — a 66% ROE, 45% margins, a Rule of 40 score of 256, and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score — consistent with a genuine compounder rather than a speculative biotech. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 50% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next fiscal year, confirming sustained high-quality fundamentals. | →Stable |
| CounterThe same quality notes flag an earnings-quality warning of 66% FCF/NI conversion, below full conversion, suggesting some reported profitability isn't yet converting cleanly to cash. | ||
CorMedix has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and carries a PEG ratio of 0.58, pointing to an attractively priced grower with a track record of execution. Bull case | The company beats consensus EPS estimates again at the next print, extending the beat streak to 4 of 5. | →Stable |
| CounterConsensus embeds an approximately 84% earnings decline off a cyclical peak, so even a 'beat' could be against a much lower bar and not indicate real acceleration. | ||
A hard death-cross gate failure and a -7.0%/30-day 200-day moving-average slope confirm the stock is in a technically confirmed downtrend despite strong fundamentals. Warnings | Momentum score recovers above the 5.5 threshold and the death-cross gate clears within two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong quality and earnings metrics could be masking a market view that momentum won't recover soon, since momentum sits at only 4.9, below the 5.5 bar. | ||
A 19% short interest combined with a 7.5 quality score sets up a potential short-squeeze dynamic, and a put/call ratio of 1.75 with 82% implied volatility signals elevated options-market hedging. Risk breakdown | Short interest declines below 10% of float or the stock experiences a squeeze-driven rally of at least 20% within two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated short interest could instead reflect informed bearish positioning ahead of confirmed technical deterioration, not an unwarranted squeeze setup. | ||
The position-sizing engine assigns strong conviction and a 20% quality premium to CorMedix, reflecting close alignment between data quality and bullish signals. Position-sizing math | Conviction remains elevated or upgrades further as data quality and signal alignment persist over the next two quarters. | — |
| CounterHigh ATR-driven volatility (4.6%) underlying the position-sizing factors means price swings could just as easily reverse conviction if momentum fails to recover. | ||
CorMedix shows elite quality metrics — a 66% ROE, 45% margins, a Rule of 40 score of 256, and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score — consistent with a genuine compounder rather than a speculative biotech.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 50% and the Piotroski F-Score remains at 8 or 9 over the next fiscal year, confirming sustained high-quality fundamentals.
CounterThe same quality notes flag an earnings-quality warning of 66% FCF/NI conversion, below full conversion, suggesting some reported profitability isn't yet converting cleanly to cash.
CorMedix has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and carries a PEG ratio of 0.58, pointing to an attractively priced grower with a track record of execution.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates again at the next print, extending the beat streak to 4 of 5.
CounterConsensus embeds an approximately 84% earnings decline off a cyclical peak, so even a 'beat' could be against a much lower bar and not indicate real acceleration.
A hard death-cross gate failure and a -7.0%/30-day 200-day moving-average slope confirm the stock is in a technically confirmed downtrend despite strong fundamentals.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above the 5.5 threshold and the death-cross gate clears within two quarters.
CounterStrong quality and earnings metrics could be masking a market view that momentum won't recover soon, since momentum sits at only 4.9, below the 5.5 bar.
A 19% short interest combined with a 7.5 quality score sets up a potential short-squeeze dynamic, and a put/call ratio of 1.75 with 82% implied volatility signals elevated options-market hedging.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 10% of float or the stock experiences a squeeze-driven rally of at least 20% within two quarters.
CounterElevated short interest could instead reflect informed bearish positioning ahead of confirmed technical deterioration, not an unwarranted squeeze setup.
The position-sizing engine assigns strong conviction and a 20% quality premium to CorMedix, reflecting close alignment between data quality and bullish signals.
—Position-sizing math
- Expectation
- Conviction remains elevated or upgrades further as data quality and signal alignment persist over the next two quarters.
CounterHigh ATR-driven volatility (4.6%) underlying the position-sizing factors means price swings could just as easily reverse conviction if momentum fails to recover.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.1 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 66%
- ▸Strong margins: 45%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 66% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 86%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 0.5 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Short squeeze setup: 19% short, quality 7.5
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C_QUALITY_VALUE_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:7.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
7.07
Upside
+62.1%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (9.3) with weak momentum (1.7)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -54% (>40% off 52w high), Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The C-path quality+value combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 9.3 and value 8.8 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 7.07 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 9.3, and Value at 8.8; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Technical at 4.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.07 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Elite Quality Compounder Metrics
Trip ifROE falls below 30% or the Piotroski F-Score drops below 6 in the next annual report, indicating quality deterioration.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak Value
Trip ifCorMedix misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 10% at its next earnings report.
- P3Death Cross Momentum Risk
Trip ifThe stock closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 90 consecutive days without the death-cross gate clearing.
- P4Short Squeeze Setup Risk
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% of float while the stock price falls more than 15% from current levels.
- P5Position Sizing Conviction Signal
Trip ifConviction rating drops to the lowest tier at the next data refresh, or ATR volatility exceeds 6%.