Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.0 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.74
CRH · Why this verdict
Why CRH (CRH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CRH trades with roughly 17% headroom to the near-term price objective and a 2.6-to-1 reward-to-risk setup in your favor, but poor free cash flow conversion at 21% of net income, a recent earnings miss, and a death-cross technical configuration temper the case for adding exposure — the setup favors caution over conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Sell-side consensus implies approximately 30% upside from current levels, with the near-term price objective roughly 17% above current price — providing a risk/reward of about 2.6-to-1 in your favor that makes the pricing geometry one of the more constructive aspects of the current setup. Sentiment breakdown | Price approaches the take-profit objective of $128 over the next 12 months as construction demand remains stable and analyst targets hold at or above current consensus. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst price targets in building-materials names are frequently calibrated to cyclical peaks; a construction activity slowdown or commodity cost increase could trigger a round of target reductions that compress both the implied upside and the discount simultaneously, leaving the setup far less attractive than the current geometry suggests. | ||
Free cash flow represents only 21% of reported net income — converting just 21 cents of every dollar of accounting earnings into actual cash — which raises concerns about earnings quality and limits the company's capacity to fund shareholder returns or service debt organically. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion improves above 50% of net income for two consecutive quarters, closing the earnings quality gap and removing the red flag designation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates strong balance sheet mechanics; the low FCF-to-net-income ratio may reflect timing differences in working capital or lumpy capital expenditure rather than a structural quality problem, and may improve without any deterioration in operating performance. | ||
The stock sits in a death-cross configuration but the long-term moving average is still rising at half a percent per month and MACD has turned constructive — the momentum profile describes this as a pullback within a broader uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown, leaving the recovery thesis open. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and RSI holds above 50 for at least two consecutive months, confirming a recovery rather than continued distribution. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA death cross in place means the near-term trend is still down despite MACD improvement; in a cyclical sector, interim inflection signals can reverse if macro or end-market conditions weaken before the technical pattern fully resolves into a confirmed recovery. | ||
A beat on the most recent quarter was preceded by a narrow miss in the prior period and two positive surprises in the two earlier quarters — three of four quarters on the right side of consensus — with the most recent beat suggesting the miss may have been an isolated event rather than a deteriorating trend. Bull case | Beat rate improves to at least three of the next four quarters with average positive surprise above 2%, reinstating consistent execution and reducing the risk that the miss recurs. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAverage positive surprise of only 2% leaves almost no margin for operational variance; in a building-materials business exposed to commodity costs and construction volumes, a single unfavorable quarter could easily produce another miss and erode confidence in the earnings story. | ||
Sell-side consensus implies approximately 30% upside from current levels, with the near-term price objective roughly 17% above current price — providing a risk/reward of about 2.6-to-1 in your favor that makes the pricing geometry one of the more constructive aspects of the current setup.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price approaches the take-profit objective of $128 over the next 12 months as construction demand remains stable and analyst targets hold at or above current consensus.
CounterAnalyst price targets in building-materials names are frequently calibrated to cyclical peaks; a construction activity slowdown or commodity cost increase could trigger a round of target reductions that compress both the implied upside and the discount simultaneously, leaving the setup far less attractive than the current geometry suggests.
Free cash flow represents only 21% of reported net income — converting just 21 cents of every dollar of accounting earnings into actual cash — which raises concerns about earnings quality and limits the company's capacity to fund shareholder returns or service debt organically.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion improves above 50% of net income for two consecutive quarters, closing the earnings quality gap and removing the red flag designation.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 indicates strong balance sheet mechanics; the low FCF-to-net-income ratio may reflect timing differences in working capital or lumpy capital expenditure rather than a structural quality problem, and may improve without any deterioration in operating performance.
The stock sits in a death-cross configuration but the long-term moving average is still rising at half a percent per month and MACD has turned constructive — the momentum profile describes this as a pullback within a broader uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown, leaving the recovery thesis open.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and RSI holds above 50 for at least two consecutive months, confirming a recovery rather than continued distribution.
CounterA death cross in place means the near-term trend is still down despite MACD improvement; in a cyclical sector, interim inflection signals can reverse if macro or end-market conditions weaken before the technical pattern fully resolves into a confirmed recovery.
A beat on the most recent quarter was preceded by a narrow miss in the prior period and two positive surprises in the two earlier quarters — three of four quarters on the right side of consensus — with the most recent beat suggesting the miss may have been an isolated event rather than a deteriorating trend.
↓DeterioratingBull case
- Expectation
- Beat rate improves to at least three of the next four quarters with average positive surprise above 2%, reinstating consistent execution and reducing the risk that the miss recurs.
CounterAverage positive surprise of only 2% leaves almost no margin for operational variance; in a building-materials business exposed to commodity costs and construction volumes, a single unfavorable quarter could easily produce another miss and erode confidence in the earnings story.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 7.3 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.4 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 64% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=4)
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.1 |
| quality rank | 4.6 |
| growth rank | 2.9 |
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 8.6 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| put call | 6.3 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $70
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:106d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.10
Upside
+16.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 79
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.10 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.2, Value at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 1.6, Technical at 2.2, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Analyst Consensus Recovery Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $110 for 2 consecutive quarters, eliminating the implied discount.
- P2Poor Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion rises above 60% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, resolving the quality concern.
- P3Technical Recovery Not Confirmed
Trip ifThe 200-day moving-average slope falls below 0% for 2 consecutive months, confirming a downtrend rather than a pullback.
- P4Earnings Beat Record One Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.