Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.38
- ▸Attractively valued
CPF · Why this verdict
Why Central Pacific Financial Corp (CPF) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Central Pacific Financial is a Hawaii bank with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings-beat streak and strong margins at a low multiple, but the price is 4.3% above the analyst target and the loan book is concentrated in Hawaii real estate.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Real estate-related loans make up 80.0% of the loan book, concentrated in Hawaii. Bear case | Credit quality on real estate loans holds and non-performing loans stay low. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHawaii real estate has supply constraints that historically support collateral values, softening the risk. | ||
Margins are strong at about 30%, though the business has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 25% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith no moat, deposit competition could compress margins quickly and the return on assets component score is only 0.8/10. | ||
Central Pacific beat estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, with an average surprise of about 7.1%. Catalyst breakdown | The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimates may be set conservatively and the latest beat of 3.8% is smaller than earlier quarters, suggesting the cushion is narrowing. | ||
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 10.3x with a PEG of 0.37, which is attractive for a bank with a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterThe price is already about 4.3% above the $36.34 analyst target, so the cheap multiple may already be priced in. | ||
The $37.98 price sits above the $36.34 analyst target, about 4.3% over it, against 8.4% downside to the stop. Warnings | Analyst targets are raised, or the price pulls back toward the target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong momentum with rising on-balance volume could lead analysts to lift targets and keep the stock rising. | ||
Real estate-related loans make up 80.0% of the loan book, concentrated in Hawaii.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Credit quality on real estate loans holds and non-performing loans stay low.
CounterHawaii real estate has supply constraints that historically support collateral values, softening the risk.
Margins are strong at about 30%, though the business has no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterWith no moat, deposit competition could compress margins quickly and the return on assets component score is only 0.8/10.
Central Pacific beat estimates in all 4 of the last quarters, with an average surprise of about 7.1%.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterEstimates may be set conservatively and the latest beat of 3.8% is smaller than earlier quarters, suggesting the cushion is narrowing.
The shares trade at a forward P/E of 10.3x with a PEG of 0.37, which is attractive for a bank with a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x while earnings grow.
CounterThe price is already about 4.3% above the $36.34 analyst target, so the cheap multiple may already be priced in.
The $37.98 price sits above the $36.34 analyst target, about 4.3% over it, against 8.4% downside to the stop.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised, or the price pulls back toward the target.
CounterStrong momentum with rising on-balance volume could lead analysts to lift targets and keep the stock rising.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 7.6 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 3.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 8.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 3.2%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.61
Upside
-6.2%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.0B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Technical at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Momentum at 6.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation For Bank
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 10.3x.
- P3Strong Margins No Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 20% from the current 30%.
- P4Hawaii Real Estate Concentration
Trip ifReal estate-related loans exceeds 88% of the loan portfolio from the current 80.0%.
- P5Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice drops to below the $36.36 stop level from the current $37.98.