Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 8.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.68
COO · Why this verdict
Why The Cooper Companies (COO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend — trading below the 200-day moving average with a 2% per month declining slope — and a death cross remains in force as a hard technical block; until this pattern resolves, price momentum is working against the position. Momentum breakdown | Over 12 months, the 200-day moving average slope should flatten and then turn positive; the short-term moving average should cross back above the long-term moving average, signaling trend recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is already showing early recovery signs — MACD is improving and RSI has reached 69 — suggesting the death cross may be a lagging signal and the worst of the downtrend is behind the stock. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the four most recent quarters, with surprise magnitudes of approximately 3%, 3%, 7%, and 10% in successive quarters — accelerating from small beats toward double-digit outperformance — indicating consistent and improving execution against expectations. Earnings | The beat streak should extend into the next two or more quarters, with EPS surprises remaining above 3% and consensus estimates continuing to drift upward as analysts acknowledge the outperformance pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent beats against modest consensus estimates can reflect guidance conservatism rather than accelerating fundamentals; if organic growth is genuinely soft, the beat cadence could reverse when analysts reset expectations higher. | ||
With only about 3.5% upside to the analyst-derived target and approximately 12.7% downside to the stop level, the risk/reward geometry is unfavorable; the setup does not reward entry at current prices even for a name with strong earnings execution. Price targets | A constructive risk/reward would require either a significant analyst target upgrade (to above $80) or a meaningful price pullback toward $60, creating at least a 1.5-to-1 favorable ratio. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the earnings beat streak triggers a round of analyst estimate upgrades and target raises, the upside calculation could improve rapidly and make the current entry look attractive in hindsight. | ||
Free cash flow is converting at 180% of net income and the Piotroski financial strength score stands at 8 out of 9, indicating that the underlying business is generating cash well in excess of reported earnings and the balance sheet is in solid health — a quality anchor beneath the bearish technical picture. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income should remain above 100% over the next 12 months; any sustained compression toward or below 100% would signal deteriorating cash quality. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh cash conversion relative to reported earnings can reflect aggressive non-cash charges or working-capital timing benefits rather than durable cash generation; if these tailwinds normalize, the free cash flow premium over net income could shrink. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend — trading below the 200-day moving average with a 2% per month declining slope — and a death cross remains in force as a hard technical block; until this pattern resolves, price momentum is working against the position.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, the 200-day moving average slope should flatten and then turn positive; the short-term moving average should cross back above the long-term moving average, signaling trend recovery.
CounterMomentum is already showing early recovery signs — MACD is improving and RSI has reached 69 — suggesting the death cross may be a lagging signal and the worst of the downtrend is behind the stock.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the four most recent quarters, with surprise magnitudes of approximately 3%, 3%, 7%, and 10% in successive quarters — accelerating from small beats toward double-digit outperformance — indicating consistent and improving execution against expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend into the next two or more quarters, with EPS surprises remaining above 3% and consensus estimates continuing to drift upward as analysts acknowledge the outperformance pattern.
CounterConsistent beats against modest consensus estimates can reflect guidance conservatism rather than accelerating fundamentals; if organic growth is genuinely soft, the beat cadence could reverse when analysts reset expectations higher.
With only about 3.5% upside to the analyst-derived target and approximately 12.7% downside to the stop level, the risk/reward geometry is unfavorable; the setup does not reward entry at current prices even for a name with strong earnings execution.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- A constructive risk/reward would require either a significant analyst target upgrade (to above $80) or a meaningful price pullback toward $60, creating at least a 1.5-to-1 favorable ratio.
CounterIf the earnings beat streak triggers a round of analyst estimate upgrades and target raises, the upside calculation could improve rapidly and make the current entry look attractive in hindsight.
Free cash flow is converting at 180% of net income and the Piotroski financial strength score stands at 8 out of 9, indicating that the underlying business is generating cash well in excess of reported earnings and the balance sheet is in solid health — a quality anchor beneath the bearish technical picture.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income should remain above 100% over the next 12 months; any sustained compression toward or below 100% would signal deteriorating cash quality.
CounterHigh cash conversion relative to reported earnings can reflect aggressive non-cash charges or working-capital timing benefits rather than durable cash generation; if these tailwinds normalize, the free cash flow premium over net income could shrink.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cooper Companies sits at the intersection of a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and a confirmed technical downtrend; the stock offers thin upside against meaningful downside risk, and the path to a constructive setup runs through a death cross resolution that has not yet occurred.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 9.1 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 180% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 18 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 75 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.9 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.18
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:62d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.37
Upside
-5.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.37 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 2.9, Peer rank at 3.0, and Growth at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.37 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average while the stock trades above $75.00 for 2 consecutive weeks, signaling death cross resolution.
- P2Perfect Four Quarter Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any single quarter over the next 4 reporting periods, breaking the beat streak.
- P3Thin Upside Unfavorable Risk Reward
Trip ifConsensus analyst price target rises above $80.00, providing more than 18% upside from current levels and creating a favorable risk/reward geometry.
- P4Strong Cash Conversion Financial Health
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling the cash quality advantage has eroded.