Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
CMP · Why this verdict
Why Compass Minerals Intl (CMP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The engine's momentum gate failed, with momentum scoring 3.5 versus the 4.5 threshold required, and technical notes cite falling on-balance volume even as price sits above the 200-day moving average. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should climb back above the 4.5 gate threshold for the setup to reassert an uptrend over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRSI at a mid-range 49 and price still above the 200-day moving average suggest the trend has stalled rather than decisively broken down. | ||
Compass Minerals has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and forward earnings estimates are trending upward, supporting the bull case despite a soft headline score. Bull case | The beat streak should continue, with the company beating estimates in most of the next few reported quarters and estimates continuing to trend up. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise over the trailing four quarters is actually -24.17%, dragged down by a single -196.89% miss, showing the 'beat streak' framing masks high underlying earnings volatility. | ||
Value scores well on a PEG basis, with the notes citing a forward P/E of 25.3x against a very low 0.04 PEG ratio, and the value score reading a solid 6.0 out of 10. Valuation breakdown | The value score should hold or improve as the PEG ratio remains low relative to peers over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is currently declining (-8% revenue), so a low PEG built on depressed near-term earnings comparisons could be a base-effect artifact rather than durable value. | ||
A target-reached signal shows the stock has already closed the gap to its prior analyst target, leaving only -8.5% modeled upside on that measure before the resistance-based target was reset. Warnings | If this holds, expect the stock to trade range-bound near its resistance-based take-profit level without material further appreciation over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOptions-market max pain sits at $40, well above the current $29.95 price, suggesting options positioning may see more room to the upside than the target-reached framework implies. | ||
The composite score carries a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.8, subtracting 1.5 points from the overall read. Bear case | The leverage penalty should ease as debt-to-equity declines from the current 2.8 level over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe quality notes cite excellent cash conversion (1000% FCF/NI) and a current ratio of 7.2, suggesting the balance sheet has ample cash flow to service and pay down the elevated leverage. | ||
The engine's momentum gate failed, with momentum scoring 3.5 versus the 4.5 threshold required, and technical notes cite falling on-balance volume even as price sits above the 200-day moving average.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should climb back above the 4.5 gate threshold for the setup to reassert an uptrend over the next 12 months.
CounterRSI at a mid-range 49 and price still above the 200-day moving average suggest the trend has stalled rather than decisively broken down.
Compass Minerals has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and forward earnings estimates are trending upward, supporting the bull case despite a soft headline score.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue, with the company beating estimates in most of the next few reported quarters and estimates continuing to trend up.
CounterThe average surprise over the trailing four quarters is actually -24.17%, dragged down by a single -196.89% miss, showing the 'beat streak' framing masks high underlying earnings volatility.
Value scores well on a PEG basis, with the notes citing a forward P/E of 25.3x against a very low 0.04 PEG ratio, and the value score reading a solid 6.0 out of 10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should hold or improve as the PEG ratio remains low relative to peers over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth is currently declining (-8% revenue), so a low PEG built on depressed near-term earnings comparisons could be a base-effect artifact rather than durable value.
A target-reached signal shows the stock has already closed the gap to its prior analyst target, leaving only -8.5% modeled upside on that measure before the resistance-based target was reset.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- If this holds, expect the stock to trade range-bound near its resistance-based take-profit level without material further appreciation over the next 12 months.
CounterOptions-market max pain sits at $40, well above the current $29.95 price, suggesting options positioning may see more room to the upside than the target-reached framework implies.
The composite score carries a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.8, subtracting 1.5 points from the overall read.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The leverage penalty should ease as debt-to-equity declines from the current 2.8 level over the next 12 months.
CounterThe quality notes cite excellent cash conversion (1000% FCF/NI) and a current ratio of 7.2, suggesting the balance sheet has ample cash flow to service and pay down the elevated leverage.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Compass Minerals shows a resilient earnings beat streak and a cheap PEG-based valuation, but the analyst target has already been reached, the momentum gate has failed, and elevated leverage keep the position at essentially zero conviction despite modest resistance-based upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.9 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 0.3 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.5 |
| MACD | 2.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 40) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.2 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 5.5 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 9.5 |
| volatility | 0.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.1 |
| beta | 6.0 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.84
Upside
-8.0%
Downside
9.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 6.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.84 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 6.2, Value at 6.0, and Sentiment at 5.9; the weakest are Growth at 0.4, Peer rank at 2.6, and Momentum at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.84 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak With Rising Estimates
Trip ifThe company misses earnings estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters.
- P2Cheap Valuation On Peg Basis
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0, erasing the current cheap 0.04 reading.
- P3Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifModeled upside rises above 15% as a new resistance level is established above the current $31.83 target.
- P4Failed Momentum Gate
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the engine's gate threshold.
- P5Leverage Penalty On Composite Score
Trip ifDebt-to-equity falls below 2.0 from the current 2.8.