Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CMCO · Why this verdict
Why Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Columbus McKinnon combines a statistically cheap valuation and triple-digit YoY growth with real quality concerns — negative free cash flow, no economic moat, a yield-trap dividend warning, and heavy volume-driven selling into an overbought technical setup.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Columbus McKinnon trades at a cheap forward valuation, with a forward P/E of 7.4x and PEG of 0.06 per the value dimension's notes. Valuation breakdown | A re-rating would show the forward P/E expanding toward double digits over the next 12 months as growth is recognized. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA cheap multiple alongside a below-floor quality score and cash burn can indicate a value trap rather than a genuine bargain. | ||
Columbus McKinnon posted strong growth of 125% YoY, per the growth dimension's notes. Growth breakdown | If durable, revenue growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 125% YoY growth rate this large is often driven by an easy prior-year comparison or one-time acquisition effects rather than organic momentum. | ||
Columbus McKinnon is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -17% of revenue and no competitive moat, driving its quality score below the 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | A resolving quality picture would show FCF turning positive within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative FCF can reflect temporary working-capital investment tied to the reported growth rather than a structural problem. | ||
Columbus McKinnon is overbought (RSI 72) even as a 3.5x average-volume surge accompanied a recent selloff, per the momentum notes. Momentum breakdown | A healthy resolution would show volume normalizing without RSI breaking down below 40 over the next few months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA volume surge on a selloff while RSI remains elevated often marks the start of a larger distribution phase rather than a one-off event. | ||
Columbus McKinnon carries a yield-trap warning — a high dividend yield flagged by the engine as unsafe given underlying cash generation. Catalyst breakdown | A sustainable payout would avoid a dividend cut over the next 12 months despite the warning. | →Stable |
| CounterYield-trap warnings are probabilistic flags, not certainties, and the dividend could persist if earnings stabilize. | ||
Columbus McKinnon trades at a cheap forward valuation, with a forward P/E of 7.4x and PEG of 0.06 per the value dimension's notes.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- A re-rating would show the forward P/E expanding toward double digits over the next 12 months as growth is recognized.
CounterA cheap multiple alongside a below-floor quality score and cash burn can indicate a value trap rather than a genuine bargain.
Columbus McKinnon posted strong growth of 125% YoY, per the growth dimension's notes.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- If durable, revenue growth should stay above 30% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterA 125% YoY growth rate this large is often driven by an easy prior-year comparison or one-time acquisition effects rather than organic momentum.
Columbus McKinnon is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -17% of revenue and no competitive moat, driving its quality score below the 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- A resolving quality picture would show FCF turning positive within 12 months.
CounterNegative FCF can reflect temporary working-capital investment tied to the reported growth rather than a structural problem.
Columbus McKinnon is overbought (RSI 72) even as a 3.5x average-volume surge accompanied a recent selloff, per the momentum notes.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- A healthy resolution would show volume normalizing without RSI breaking down below 40 over the next few months.
CounterA volume surge on a selloff while RSI remains elevated often marks the start of a larger distribution phase rather than a one-off event.
Columbus McKinnon carries a yield-trap warning — a high dividend yield flagged by the engine as unsafe given underlying cash generation.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- A sustainable payout would avoid a dividend cut over the next 12 months despite the warning.
CounterYield-trap warnings are probabilistic flags, not certainties, and the dividend could persist if earnings stabilize.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -17% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 125% YoY
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 33) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 47%
Insider
5.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $147,525 (0.029% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.2 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.6 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 29%
- ▸High IV: 89%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:70d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.66
Upside
+24.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.37>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.0<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.66.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.1, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Quality at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.66 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x (from current 7.4x) without a corresponding improvement in earnings.
- P2Triple Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth decelerates below 20% YoY (from current 125%).
- P3Cash Burn Quality Concern
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive, exceeding 0% of revenue (from current -17%).
- P4Overbought Selloff Volume SurgeTripped
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 alongside a break below the 200-day moving average, confirming momentum has reversed.
- P5Dividend Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifThe dividend is cut by more than 25%, confirming the yield-trap warning.