Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
CMCO · Why this verdict
Why Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Columbus McKinnon is a cheap small-cap industrial whose revenue has more than doubled and whose recent earnings beats are large, but cash burn, low quality scores and 36% short interest add significant risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue has more than doubled to $539.3M from $261.0M a year earlier, matching the 107% YoY growth flagged in the data. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $500M in each of the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe jump from $258.7M to $437.8M happened within two quarters, which points to a one-time step change rather than organic growth, so year-over-year comparisons will normalize quickly. | ||
CMCO beat EPS estimates by 60.6% and 123.2% in the last two quarters ($0.61 each), and in 3 of the last 4 quarters overall. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly EPS stays at or above $0.50 in the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA -33.9% miss in June 2026 shows results are uneven, and large beats against low estimates can reflect poor analyst visibility rather than structural strength. | ||
The business is cash-burning, with FCF at -14% of revenue, no competitive moat and a quality score of 3.2 against a 4.0 minimum. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterIntegration costs after a large revenue step-up can depress free cash flow temporarily, and a Piotroski F-Score component of 6.7 shows reasonable underlying fundamentals. | ||
Valuation is cheap at a forward P/E of 6.6x and a PEG of 0.05, with analysts seeing 49% upside and a $22.31 target against a $17.62 price. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 10x while price moves toward the analyst target. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and dampened, and a low multiple on post-acquisition earnings may prove a peak-earnings trap. | ||
Short interest is extreme at 36% with implied volatility of 128%, so the stock is exposed to sharp moves in either direction. Key risks | Short interest stays below 30% as earnings beats continue. | ↑Improving |
| CounterShort interest this high can drive a squeeze on positive news, and an insider purchase of about $47K plus a 0.1 put/call ratio show bullish positioning. | ||
Quarterly revenue has more than doubled to $539.3M from $261.0M a year earlier, matching the 107% YoY growth flagged in the data.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $500M in each of the next four quarters.
CounterThe jump from $258.7M to $437.8M happened within two quarters, which points to a one-time step change rather than organic growth, so year-over-year comparisons will normalize quickly.
CMCO beat EPS estimates by 60.6% and 123.2% in the last two quarters ($0.61 each), and in 3 of the last 4 quarters overall.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS stays at or above $0.50 in the next four quarters.
CounterA -33.9% miss in June 2026 shows results are uneven, and large beats against low estimates can reflect poor analyst visibility rather than structural strength.
The business is cash-burning, with FCF at -14% of revenue, no competitive moat and a quality score of 3.2 against a 4.0 minimum.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and the quality score rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterIntegration costs after a large revenue step-up can depress free cash flow temporarily, and a Piotroski F-Score component of 6.7 shows reasonable underlying fundamentals.
Valuation is cheap at a forward P/E of 6.6x and a PEG of 0.05, with analysts seeing 49% upside and a $22.31 target against a $17.62 price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 10x while price moves toward the analyst target.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and dampened, and a low multiple on post-acquisition earnings may prove a peak-earnings trap.
Short interest is extreme at 36% with implied volatility of 128%, so the stock is exposed to sharp moves in either direction.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest stays below 30% as earnings beats continue.
CounterShort interest this high can drive a squeeze on positive news, and an insider purchase of about $47K plus a 0.1 put/call ratio show bullish positioning.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 3.1 |
| Op margin | 4.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -14% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 107% YoY
Momentum
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 8.5 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
6.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 6.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $47,135 (0.009% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 4.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.1 |
| debt equity | 3.3 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 36%
- ▸High IV: 96%
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:92d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=8.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.04
Upside
+15.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.48>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.0<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.04.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.5, and Momentum at 8.2; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Quality at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Step Change
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $500M from the current $539.3M.
- P2Large Recent Earnings Beats
Trip ifQuarterly EPS falls below $0.30 from the current $0.61.
- P3Cash Burn Weak Quality
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 3.2.
- P4Cheap Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 10x from the current 6.6x.
- P5Extreme Short Interest Volatility
Trip ifShort interest exceeds 40% from the current 36%.