Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
CMCO · Why this verdict
Why Columbus McKinnon (CMCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Columbus McKinnon pairs a very low valuation (forward P/E 5.5x, 51% upside to the analyst target) and an earnings catalyst with 125% growth, but cash burn, weak quality (3.1) and a broken price trend keep the engine at avoid.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Forward P/E is 5.5x with a PEG of 0.04, and the analyst target of $22.10 sits 51.0% above the $14.64 price. Valuation breakdown | Price converges toward the $22.10 analyst target while forward earnings are delivered over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.04 and 78% analyst upside suggest estimates are stale or inflated by the recent revenue jump; a cut to targets would turn cheapness into a value trap. | ||
Growth is strong at 125% YoY, and quarterly revenue rose to $531M in the latest period from about $259M two quarters earlier. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $500M, in line with the $519M next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterThe jump appears step-like rather than gradual, consistent with an acquisition; organic growth may be much lower and the 125% figure may overstate underlying demand. | ||
Quality is 3.1, below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at negative 17% of revenue and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAcquisition integration costs can temporarily depress cash flow and returns, so the cash burn may be one-off rather than structural. | ||
Momentum is 1.8, below the 4.5 gate, with RSI at 29, price below the 200-day average, falling on-balance volume and 33% short interest. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI at 29 signals oversold capitulation, and 33% short interest creates squeeze potential, so a sharp reversal is plausible. | ||
Earnings are due in 11 days after 3 beats and 1 miss in the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 28%. Earnings track record | The company beats consensus EPS again at the next report and avg surprise stays positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss was a 34% shortfall and the 28% average is skewed by a single 123% beat, so a miss on thin margins is a real risk. | ||
Forward P/E is 5.5x with a PEG of 0.04, and the analyst target of $22.10 sits 51.0% above the $14.64 price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price converges toward the $22.10 analyst target while forward earnings are delivered over 12 months.
CounterA PEG of 0.04 and 78% analyst upside suggest estimates are stale or inflated by the recent revenue jump; a cut to targets would turn cheapness into a value trap.
Growth is strong at 125% YoY, and quarterly revenue rose to $531M in the latest period from about $259M two quarters earlier.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $500M, in line with the $519M next-quarter estimate.
CounterThe jump appears step-like rather than gradual, consistent with an acquisition; organic growth may be much lower and the 125% figure may overstate underlying demand.
Quality is 3.1, below the 4.0 floor, with free cash flow at negative 17% of revenue and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and quality rises above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterAcquisition integration costs can temporarily depress cash flow and returns, so the cash burn may be one-off rather than structural.
Momentum is 1.8, below the 4.5 gate, with RSI at 29, price below the 200-day average, falling on-balance volume and 33% short interest.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 4.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterRSI at 29 signals oversold capitulation, and 33% short interest creates squeeze potential, so a sharp reversal is plausible.
Earnings are due in 11 days after 3 beats and 1 miss in the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 28%.
→StableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS again at the next report and avg surprise stays positive.
CounterThe one miss was a 34% shortfall and the 28% average is skewed by a single 123% beat, so a miss on thin margins is a real risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -17% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 125% YoY
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.5 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 78%
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $194,660 (0.046% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.2 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 0.1 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 33%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
5.20
Upside
+51.4%
Downside
9.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 10d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.43>1.3, MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.0<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 5.20.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.4, and Technical at 6.7; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9, and Quality at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $17, cutting upside to less than 20% from $14.64.
- P2Revenue Step Up Strong Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $400M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Cash Burn Weak Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow stays below -10% of revenue for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Broken Trend Capitulation
Trip ifPrice falls below the $14.15 stop level, more than 3% under $14.64.
- P5Earnings Catalyst Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.