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CMCCommercial Metals CompanyHold6.0·$61.73+0.85%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Commercial Metals trades at an attractive forward multiple of 11.1x with 22% year-over-year earnings growth, but a mixed earnings track record with the most recent quarter a miss, a deeply unfavorable risk/reward geometry with only 1.7% of room to the near-term ceiling, and earnings results due in nine days create a cautious hold posture.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With GrowthStable
  • Inconsistent Earnings ExecutionStable
  • Weak Free Cash Flow ConversionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Metal Fabrication

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build a stronger, safer and more sustainable world. Today, through an extensive manufacturing network principally located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central... Read more

$61.73+14.9% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#3 of 11 Metal Fabrication
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.96%
IncomeYield1.30%(5y avg 1.31%)Payout13.99%sustainable
Stop $58.90Target $70.71(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$81.27+31.7%11 analysts
$70.71our TP
$61.73price
$81.27mean
$89

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 103d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 15, 2026103d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.7
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$6.8B
EV/EBITDA8.2
Profit Mgn6.7%
ROE13.8%
Rev Growth22.9%
Beta1.53
Dividend1.30%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C16.38bearish
IV62%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-13Item 5.02MEDIUM
    On April 13, 2026, Commercial Metals Company ("CMC" or the "Company") announced that the Company's Board of Directors (the "Board") appointed Michael R. Dumais to serve as a Class II director of the Company, effective June 23, 2026. As such, Mr.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
3.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 18, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 103d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
18 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $60.72Resistance $79.65

Price Targets

$59
$71
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-15 (103d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $61.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $70.71 (+14.5%), stop $58.90 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $70.71 (+14.9% upside). Target $70.71 (+14.5%), stop $58.90 (−4.8%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $58.90.

What are the risks of investing in CMC?

Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Is CMC overvalued or undervalued?

Commercial Metals Company trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CMC?

17 analysts cover CMC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $81.

What does Commercial Metals Company do?Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build...

Founded in 1915 as a single scrap yard in Dallas, Texas, CMC has become an innovative solutions provider helping build a stronger, safer and more sustainable world. Today, through an extensive manufacturing network principally located in the United States ("U.S.") and Central Europe, we offer products and technologies to meet the critical reinforcement needs of the global construction sector.

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