Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 3.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
CLVT · Why this verdict
Why Clarivate (CLVT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 2.7x and a PEG of 0.01, the stock is priced at a level that implies no growth expectation whatsoever — creating a potentially wide margin of safety if the business stabilizes, with analyst consensus implying roughly 49% upside to price targets from the current level. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 5x as the market reprices the business on stabilizing fundamentals, meaningfully reducing the discount. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme discounts in declining-revenue businesses can persist for years when investors lose confidence in the earnings trajectory; a forward multiple of 2.7x may reflect rational skepticism about whether reported earnings are sustainable rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
Despite reporting a GAAP net loss, the company generates a free cash flow margin of 19% and a free cash flow yield of roughly 35% — demonstrating that the underlying business converts revenue to cash more efficiently than the income statement suggests. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin remains above 15% for at least two consecutive quarters, confirming that cash generation is structural rather than a one-time occurrence. | →Stable |
| CounterA business can maintain positive free cash flow temporarily by deferring capital expenditures or working-capital investments; if maintenance spending has been suppressed, the elevated margin may not be repeatable once reinvestment needs resurface. | ||
Following a single in-line quarter at the base of the streak, the company has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 16%, suggesting management has established a credible pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Earnings | The beat streak extends to four consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%, establishing the track record across a full-year cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterThree quarters is a short track record; with revenue declining year over year the beats may reflect cost-cutting rather than genuine top-line momentum — a discipline that has a natural ceiling and can flip quickly if revenue pressure intensifies. | ||
The stock trades below all key moving averages with a death cross confirmed and a 30-day moving average slope of -7.7% — a setup consistent with a falling-knife configuration that historically requires meaningful time and price distance before a durable floor forms. Engine gate (failed) | The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average and the stock holds above both for at least 30 consecutive trading days, confirming a trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical breakdowns in small-cap names trading at extreme valuation discounts can reverse violently on a single positive catalyst; the low absolute price compresses the downside while any positive fundamental surprise may act as an asymmetric upside trigger. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 2.7x and a PEG of 0.01, the stock is priced at a level that implies no growth expectation whatsoever — creating a potentially wide margin of safety if the business stabilizes, with analyst consensus implying roughly 49% upside to price targets from the current level.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 5x as the market reprices the business on stabilizing fundamentals, meaningfully reducing the discount.
CounterExtreme discounts in declining-revenue businesses can persist for years when investors lose confidence in the earnings trajectory; a forward multiple of 2.7x may reflect rational skepticism about whether reported earnings are sustainable rather than a genuine mispricing.
Despite reporting a GAAP net loss, the company generates a free cash flow margin of 19% and a free cash flow yield of roughly 35% — demonstrating that the underlying business converts revenue to cash more efficiently than the income statement suggests.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin remains above 15% for at least two consecutive quarters, confirming that cash generation is structural rather than a one-time occurrence.
CounterA business can maintain positive free cash flow temporarily by deferring capital expenditures or working-capital investments; if maintenance spending has been suppressed, the elevated margin may not be repeatable once reinvestment needs resurface.
Following a single in-line quarter at the base of the streak, the company has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 16%, suggesting management has established a credible pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to four consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%, establishing the track record across a full-year cycle.
CounterThree quarters is a short track record; with revenue declining year over year the beats may reflect cost-cutting rather than genuine top-line momentum — a discipline that has a natural ceiling and can flip quickly if revenue pressure intensifies.
The stock trades below all key moving averages with a death cross confirmed and a 30-day moving average slope of -7.7% — a setup consistent with a falling-knife configuration that historically requires meaningful time and price distance before a durable floor forms.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average and the stock holds above both for at least 30 consecutive trading days, confirming a trend reversal.
CounterTechnical breakdowns in small-cap names trading at extreme valuation discounts can reverse violently on a single positive catalyst; the low absolute price compresses the downside while any positive fundamental surprise may act as an asymmetric upside trigger.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Clarivate presents a stark tension between deeply discounted forward multiples and a deteriorating price trend: free cash flow margins are healthy and the earnings beat streak is intact, but a confirmed technical breakdown with a death cross and momentum in negative territory means the fundamental value has yet to find a price floor — patience until the technical picture stabilizes is warranted.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.9 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 19%, FCF yield 28.6%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 18 (fail)
Growth
2.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.9 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 1.4 |
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.6 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.48
Upside
+22.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Catalyst at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 1.9, Growth at 2.1, and Peer rank at 2.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Valuation Discount
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 5x for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Positive Free Cash Flow Generation
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Improving Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Technical Breakdown
Trip ifThe 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average and holds for 30 consecutive trading days.