Value
9.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 3.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
CLVT · Why this verdict
Why Clarivate (CLVT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Clarivate presents a stark tension between deeply discounted forward multiples and a deteriorating price trend: free cash flow margins are healthy and the earnings beat streak is intact, but a confirmed technical breakdown with a death cross and momentum in negative territory means the fundamental value has yet to find a price floor — patience until the technical picture stabilizes is warranted.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 2.7x and a PEG of 0.01, the stock is priced at a level that implies no growth expectation whatsoever — creating a potentially wide margin of safety if the business stabilizes, with analyst consensus implying roughly 49% upside to price targets from the current level. Valuation breakdown | The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 5x as the market reprices the business on stabilizing fundamentals, meaningfully reducing the discount. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme discounts in declining-revenue businesses can persist for years when investors lose confidence in the earnings trajectory; a forward multiple of 2.7x may reflect rational skepticism about whether reported earnings are sustainable rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
Despite reporting a GAAP net loss, the company generates a free cash flow margin of 19% and a free cash flow yield of roughly 35% — demonstrating that the underlying business converts revenue to cash more efficiently than the income statement suggests. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin remains above 15% for at least two consecutive quarters, confirming that cash generation is structural rather than a one-time occurrence. | →Stable |
| CounterA business can maintain positive free cash flow temporarily by deferring capital expenditures or working-capital investments; if maintenance spending has been suppressed, the elevated margin may not be repeatable once reinvestment needs resurface. | ||
Following a single in-line quarter at the base of the streak, the company has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 16%, suggesting management has established a credible pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Earnings | The beat streak extends to four consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%, establishing the track record across a full-year cycle. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThree quarters is a short track record; with revenue declining year over year the beats may reflect cost-cutting rather than genuine top-line momentum — a discipline that has a natural ceiling and can flip quickly if revenue pressure intensifies. | ||
The stock trades below all key moving averages with a death cross confirmed and a 30-day moving average slope of -7.7% — a setup consistent with a falling-knife configuration that historically requires meaningful time and price distance before a durable floor forms. Engine gate (failed) | The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average and the stock holds above both for at least 30 consecutive trading days, confirming a trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical breakdowns in small-cap names trading at extreme valuation discounts can reverse violently on a single positive catalyst; the low absolute price compresses the downside while any positive fundamental surprise may act as an asymmetric upside trigger. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 2.7x and a PEG of 0.01, the stock is priced at a level that implies no growth expectation whatsoever — creating a potentially wide margin of safety if the business stabilizes, with analyst consensus implying roughly 49% upside to price targets from the current level.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 5x as the market reprices the business on stabilizing fundamentals, meaningfully reducing the discount.
CounterExtreme discounts in declining-revenue businesses can persist for years when investors lose confidence in the earnings trajectory; a forward multiple of 2.7x may reflect rational skepticism about whether reported earnings are sustainable rather than a genuine mispricing.
Despite reporting a GAAP net loss, the company generates a free cash flow margin of 19% and a free cash flow yield of roughly 35% — demonstrating that the underlying business converts revenue to cash more efficiently than the income statement suggests.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin remains above 15% for at least two consecutive quarters, confirming that cash generation is structural rather than a one-time occurrence.
CounterA business can maintain positive free cash flow temporarily by deferring capital expenditures or working-capital investments; if maintenance spending has been suppressed, the elevated margin may not be repeatable once reinvestment needs resurface.
Following a single in-line quarter at the base of the streak, the company has delivered three consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 16%, suggesting management has established a credible pattern of consistently under-promising and over-delivering.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to four consecutive quarters with average surprise remaining above 10%, establishing the track record across a full-year cycle.
CounterThree quarters is a short track record; with revenue declining year over year the beats may reflect cost-cutting rather than genuine top-line momentum — a discipline that has a natural ceiling and can flip quickly if revenue pressure intensifies.
The stock trades below all key moving averages with a death cross confirmed and a 30-day moving average slope of -7.7% — a setup consistent with a falling-knife configuration that historically requires meaningful time and price distance before a durable floor forms.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average and the stock holds above both for at least 30 consecutive trading days, confirming a trend reversal.
CounterTechnical breakdowns in small-cap names trading at extreme valuation discounts can reverse violently on a single positive catalyst; the low absolute price compresses the downside while any positive fundamental surprise may act as an asymmetric upside trigger.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.9 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 19%, FCF yield 31.0%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 18 (fail)
Growth
2.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
Insider
2.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 0.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions reducing
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 1.1 |
Technical
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.8 |
| support resistance | 3.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 2.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.4 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 18%
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 10 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.4>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:10d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.74
Upside
-11.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 10d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -50% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.7=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 9.6 and asymmetric R:R of -0.74.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.6, Catalyst at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 2.0, Growth at 2.1, and Insider at 2.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 4 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Extreme Valuation Discount
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple expands above 5x for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Positive Free Cash Flow Generation
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below 10% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Improving Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Technical Breakdown
Trip ifThe 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average and holds for 30 consecutive trading days.