Value
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.1 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.8 |
| PEG | 3.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 31.1x
- ▸PEG: 3.38
CLH · Why this verdict
Why Clean Harbors (CLH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward multiple of roughly 30 times earnings with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio near 3.3 — levels that price in significant future growth and leave little margin of safety if execution slips even modestly. Value | For the valuation to prove justified, revenue and earnings growth must accelerate over the next 12 months, bringing the PEG ratio closer to 2 or below. | →Stable |
| CounterPremium multiples in industrials businesses with durable recurring revenue streams can persist for extended periods; if the company delivers consistent earnings growth, the current multiple may prove reasonable over a multi-year horizon. | ||
The Piotroski financial strength score registers 8 out of 9, reflecting sound balance sheet health, solid profitability, and improving efficiency — a level of financial integrity that is difficult to fake and typically precedes sustained operational strength. Quality | Financial health metrics hold steady or improve over the next 12 months, with the Piotroski score remaining at 7 or above in subsequent assessments. | →Stable |
| CounterFinancial health scores are backward-looking; two of the four most recent quarters ended in earnings misses (the older two of the four), and a return to that pattern would suggest the Piotroski reading may not be durable going forward. | ||
The stock has reached the analyst consensus target with just 0.2% headroom to that benchmark; while technical resistance at $301.82 provides roughly 6% additional room, the reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 1.2-to-1 is thin relative to what a compelling entry case requires. Warnings | Upside to the near-term target would need to expand meaningfully — through either a price pullback or upward analyst target revisions — before the setup becomes attractive for new buyers. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo consecutive earnings beats in the most recent quarters may prompt analysts to revise targets higher, which would restore positive implied upside and improve the reward-to-risk geometry from current levels. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 2.62 — more than twice the neutral level — and the stock trades above the max-pain level, a configuration implying the options market is positioned for near-term downside pressure. Risk | If the stock is to sustain a breakout above resistance, the put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 and price should hold above max pain for an extended period without reverting. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios in established industrials names sometimes reflect portfolio hedging by long holders rather than directional bearish bets; the ratio alone cannot distinguish between protective hedges and speculative shorts. | ||
The stock trades at a forward multiple of roughly 30 times earnings with a price-to-earnings-growth ratio near 3.3 — levels that price in significant future growth and leave little margin of safety if execution slips even modestly.
→StableValue
- Expectation
- For the valuation to prove justified, revenue and earnings growth must accelerate over the next 12 months, bringing the PEG ratio closer to 2 or below.
CounterPremium multiples in industrials businesses with durable recurring revenue streams can persist for extended periods; if the company delivers consistent earnings growth, the current multiple may prove reasonable over a multi-year horizon.
The Piotroski financial strength score registers 8 out of 9, reflecting sound balance sheet health, solid profitability, and improving efficiency — a level of financial integrity that is difficult to fake and typically precedes sustained operational strength.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Financial health metrics hold steady or improve over the next 12 months, with the Piotroski score remaining at 7 or above in subsequent assessments.
CounterFinancial health scores are backward-looking; two of the four most recent quarters ended in earnings misses (the older two of the four), and a return to that pattern would suggest the Piotroski reading may not be durable going forward.
The stock has reached the analyst consensus target with just 0.2% headroom to that benchmark; while technical resistance at $301.82 provides roughly 6% additional room, the reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 1.2-to-1 is thin relative to what a compelling entry case requires.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Upside to the near-term target would need to expand meaningfully — through either a price pullback or upward analyst target revisions — before the setup becomes attractive for new buyers.
CounterTwo consecutive earnings beats in the most recent quarters may prompt analysts to revise targets higher, which would restore positive implied upside and improve the reward-to-risk geometry from current levels.
The put/call ratio stands at 2.62 — more than twice the neutral level — and the stock trades above the max-pain level, a configuration implying the options market is positioned for near-term downside pressure.
→StableRisk
- Expectation
- If the stock is to sustain a breakout above resistance, the put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 and price should hold above max pain for an extended period without reverting.
CounterElevated put/call ratios in established industrials names sometimes reflect portfolio hedging by long holders rather than directional bearish bets; the ratio alone cannot distinguish between protective hedges and speculative shorts.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A near-perfect financial health score and solid momentum point to a sound underlying business, but the stock has reached its analyst consensus target, forward multiples are stretched relative to growth, and a 2.6-to-1 put/call ratio suggests the options market is positioned for near-term downside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 3.3 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.5 |
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $90,044 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 7.8 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.53
Upside
-2.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.53 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, Technical at 6.1, and Sentiment at 5.7; the weakest are Growth at 3.4, Value at 4.1, and Catalyst at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 in 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P2Valuation Stretched Relative To Growth
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x from the current 30.3x.
- P3Stock At Analyst Consensus Ceiling
Trip ifStock closes above $301.82 (the current take-profit level) for 5 consecutive trading days.
- P4Options Market Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 for 4 consecutive weeks.