Value
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 3.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 38.7x
- ▸PEG: 3.79
CEVA · Why this verdict
Why CEVA (CEVA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CEVA has strung together four straight quarters without an earnings miss, but the stock trades at a rich ~49x forward multiple with a quality score below the engine's floor (a failing Rule of 40 score of 15) and its price target already reached with a negative risk/reward read, so the setup requires either a valuation reset or renewed upside from a raised target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
CEVA trades at a rich valuation, with a forward P/E near 49.3x and a PEG ratio of 3.96, among the priciest reads in the assessment. Valuation breakdown | For the valuation risk to ease, the forward P/E should compress from its current ~49x level toward the broader market average over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock still trades above its 200-day moving average with accumulating volume, price action that suggests the market currently supports paying up for the name. | ||
CEVA's quality score of 3.2 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with a Rule of 40 score of just 15, a clear fail, even though the company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss. Quality breakdown | The Rule of 40 score should climb above 40 over the next 12 months for the quality concerns to lift. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company has beaten or met earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, a consistency that argues the operating trends underlying the Rule of 40 shortfall could still improve. | ||
CEVA's tracked price target has already been reached, and the engine's own risk/reward assessment reads negative at the current price. Warnings | For the constrained setup to improve, the price target should be raised, restoring a positive risk/reward skew over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith light analyst coverage, the current price target itself may not fully reflect updated fundamentals, leaving room for revision. | ||
CEVA has beaten or met earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, including a roughly 122% surprise in the most recent print, with an average surprise near 39%. Earnings | The company should continue delivering EPS surprises at or above 0% in its upcoming reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterImplied volatility is elevated at about 123%, signaling the market expects a large move around future prints, meaning even continued beats don't guarantee the stock reacts favorably. | ||
CEVA trades at a rich valuation, with a forward P/E near 49.3x and a PEG ratio of 3.96, among the priciest reads in the assessment.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- For the valuation risk to ease, the forward P/E should compress from its current ~49x level toward the broader market average over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock still trades above its 200-day moving average with accumulating volume, price action that suggests the market currently supports paying up for the name.
CEVA's quality score of 3.2 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, with a Rule of 40 score of just 15, a clear fail, even though the company is free-cash-flow positive despite a GAAP loss.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Rule of 40 score should climb above 40 over the next 12 months for the quality concerns to lift.
CounterThe company has beaten or met earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, a consistency that argues the operating trends underlying the Rule of 40 shortfall could still improve.
CEVA's tracked price target has already been reached, and the engine's own risk/reward assessment reads negative at the current price.
Tripped↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- For the constrained setup to improve, the price target should be raised, restoring a positive risk/reward skew over the next 12 months.
CounterWith light analyst coverage, the current price target itself may not fully reflect updated fundamentals, leaving room for revision.
CEVA has beaten or met earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, including a roughly 122% surprise in the most recent print, with an average surprise near 39%.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should continue delivering EPS surprises at or above 0% in its upcoming reports.
CounterImplied volatility is elevated at about 123%, signaling the market expects a large move around future prints, meaning even continued beats don't guarantee the stock reacts favorably.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.6 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 3%, FCF yield 0.4%)
- ▸Rule of 40: 15 (fail)
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.49 (n=4)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 65%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 1.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.3 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 3.3 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸High IV: 98%
- ▸Above max pain $18
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.89
Upside
+43.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -41% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Catalyst at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of 2.89.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 8.2, Sentiment at 7.9, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Quality at 3.5, Peer rank at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.89 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rich Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 30x from the current ~49x level.
- P2Quality Below Floor
Trip ifRule of 40 score rises above 40, reversing the current failing reading of 15.
- P3Target Reached Negative AsymmetryTripped
Trip ifPrice target is raised such that the reward-to-risk ratio turns positive, exceeding 1.0.
- P4Consistent Earnings Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss), breaking the current no-miss streak across the last four reported quarters.