Value
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.4 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 47.1x
CCRN · Why this verdict
Why Cross Country Healthcare (CCRN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining at -18% year-over-year, pulling the engine's growth score down to 0.0, the weakest possible reading. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive, or at least stabilize above -10% YoY, over the next 4 reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterHealthcare staffing companies can see sharp revenue swings tied to post-pandemic demand normalization, so an -18% decline may reflect a one-time reset rather than a structural deterioration. | ||
Analyst estimates have fallen -29.2% over the past 30 days, a sharp deterioration the engine uses as a sentiment proxy, pulling the sentiment score down to 3.4. Sentiment breakdown | Estimate revisions should stabilize or turn positive over the next quarter if the outlook is bottoming. | →Stable |
| CounterA sharp 30-day estimate cut often reflects analysts catching up to already-known bad news, meaning the worst of the negative revision cycle may already be priced in. | ||
The stock trades at a 47.1x forward P/E, a rich multiple the engine's value score of 3.6 reflects even before accounting for declining revenue and falling estimates. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should compress below 25x, or earnings should re-accelerate, over the next 4 quarters to justify current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterA single period's forward P/E can be distorted by a temporarily depressed earnings base, making the multiple look artificially high even if normalized earnings power is healthier. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a deeply negative average surprise of -110.6%, reflecting significant execution shortfalls against estimates. Earnings | The beat rate should improve to at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise recovering toward 0% or better. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme percentage surprises can result from a very small estimate base, where even a tiny absolute miss produces a huge percentage swing that overstates the real magnitude of the shortfall. | ||
Revenue is declining at -18% year-over-year, pulling the engine's growth score down to 0.0, the weakest possible reading.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive, or at least stabilize above -10% YoY, over the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterHealthcare staffing companies can see sharp revenue swings tied to post-pandemic demand normalization, so an -18% decline may reflect a one-time reset rather than a structural deterioration.
Analyst estimates have fallen -29.2% over the past 30 days, a sharp deterioration the engine uses as a sentiment proxy, pulling the sentiment score down to 3.4.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimate revisions should stabilize or turn positive over the next quarter if the outlook is bottoming.
CounterA sharp 30-day estimate cut often reflects analysts catching up to already-known bad news, meaning the worst of the negative revision cycle may already be priced in.
The stock trades at a 47.1x forward P/E, a rich multiple the engine's value score of 3.6 reflects even before accounting for declining revenue and falling estimates.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should compress below 25x, or earnings should re-accelerate, over the next 4 quarters to justify current levels.
CounterA single period's forward P/E can be distorted by a temporarily depressed earnings base, making the multiple look artificially high even if normalized earnings power is healthier.
The company has missed earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 quarters, with a deeply negative average surprise of -110.6%, reflecting significant execution shortfalls against estimates.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should improve to at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise recovering toward 0% or better.
CounterExtreme percentage surprises can result from a very small estimate base, where even a tiny absolute miss produces a huge percentage swing that overstates the real magnitude of the shortfall.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cross Country Healthcare faces sharply declining revenue, falling analyst estimates, a rich valuation relative to its earnings power, and a consistent pattern of earnings misses -- a confluence of factors that keeps quality below the engine's floor and supports the exit signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| Moat | 3.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -18%
Momentum
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 2.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 9.8 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.1 |
- ▸High IV: 213%
Catalyst
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.13
Upside
-17.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.8<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, Insider at 5.1, and Technical at 5.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Catalyst at 2.1, and Quality at 2.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sharply Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth stays below -15% YoY for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P2Falling Estimates Sentiment Deterioration
Trip ifEstimates fall more than 10% further over the next 30 days.
- P3Rich Valuation Vs Earnings Power
Trip ifForward P/E stays above 40x for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Miss Pattern
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise stays below -50% for 2 more consecutive quarters.