Value
6.4/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0 |
CCO · Why this verdict
Why Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, (CCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The current price sits above the analyst consensus price target, yielding negative upside of roughly 1.2% and an unfavorable risk/reward of -1.5-to-1, meaning downside materially exceeds any remaining room to the target. Price targets | Analyst consensus price target is revised upward to at least $2.80, restoring meaningful positive upside from current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets can lag share price momentum in an uptrend; if the company delivers positive guidance, consensus targets may be revised materially higher, restoring positive asymmetry and changing the risk/reward calculus. | ||
Free cash flow is negative at roughly -1% of revenue, meaning the company is consuming cash rather than generating it, a condition that pressures the balance sheet and limits financial flexibility regardless of reported earnings. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and exceeds 3% of revenue on a trailing twelve-month basis for 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency; a single quarter of improved working capital could push free cash flow positive without requiring a structural change in the business. | ||
The company delivered just one outright beat in the last four quarters — with a miss of 256% below estimates in the third quarter — and earnings estimates are trending downward, leaving the earnings trajectory unreliable as a catalyst for upside. Earnings | Beat rate recovers to at least 75% over the next four quarters with average positive surprise exceeding 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two most recent quarters both came in at or just above estimates on an in-line basis, suggesting stabilization after a period of elevated volatility; if estimates have been reset sufficiently low, consecutive in-line or beat results could restore confidence. | ||
Falling on-balance volume indicates active distribution by market participants, and momentum is at the minimum threshold of 4.5, suggesting underlying selling pressure even as the price sits near a 52-week high. Momentum | On-balance volume trend reverses to rising and momentum score rises above 5.5 for 2 consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is near its 52-week high and above the 200-day moving average, which historically attracts momentum buyers; a positive earnings catalyst could flip the distribution signal quickly and push momentum decisively above the floor. | ||
The current price sits above the analyst consensus price target, yielding negative upside of roughly 1.2% and an unfavorable risk/reward of -1.5-to-1, meaning downside materially exceeds any remaining room to the target.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target is revised upward to at least $2.80, restoring meaningful positive upside from current levels.
CounterAnalyst targets can lag share price momentum in an uptrend; if the company delivers positive guidance, consensus targets may be revised materially higher, restoring positive asymmetry and changing the risk/reward calculus.
Free cash flow is negative at roughly -1% of revenue, meaning the company is consuming cash rather than generating it, a condition that pressures the balance sheet and limits financial flexibility regardless of reported earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and exceeds 3% of revenue on a trailing twelve-month basis for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency; a single quarter of improved working capital could push free cash flow positive without requiring a structural change in the business.
The company delivered just one outright beat in the last four quarters — with a miss of 256% below estimates in the third quarter — and earnings estimates are trending downward, leaving the earnings trajectory unreliable as a catalyst for upside.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Beat rate recovers to at least 75% over the next four quarters with average positive surprise exceeding 5%.
CounterThe two most recent quarters both came in at or just above estimates on an in-line basis, suggesting stabilization after a period of elevated volatility; if estimates have been reset sufficiently low, consecutive in-line or beat results could restore confidence.
Falling on-balance volume indicates active distribution by market participants, and momentum is at the minimum threshold of 4.5, suggesting underlying selling pressure even as the price sits near a 52-week high.
→StableMomentum
- Expectation
- On-balance volume trend reverses to rising and momentum score rises above 5.5 for 2 consecutive months.
CounterThe stock is near its 52-week high and above the 200-day moving average, which historically attracts momentum buyers; a positive earnings catalyst could flip the distribution signal quickly and push momentum decisively above the floor.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The stock is trading roughly 1.2% above its analyst consensus price target, leaving risk/reward at -1.5-to-1 with no remaining upside; persistent negative free cash flow and a mixed earnings record with estimates trending downward provide no fundamental support for a re-rating, making the setup unattractive.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 6.8 |
| Op margin | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 4.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.2 |
| erm sentiment | 4.1 |
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $62,976,966 (5.134% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| beta | 3.5 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:5.13%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.94
Upside
-14.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.96>1.3, MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE, INSIDER:5.13%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.94 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, Technical at 7.1, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Insider at 3.1, Momentum at 3.3, and Catalyst at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Consensus Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $2.80, restoring upside of more than 15% from current levels.
- P2Negative Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFree cash flow turns positive and exceeds 3% of revenue for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Weak Earnings Consistency
Trip ifEPS beat rate reaches 75% or higher over any rolling 4-quarter window.
- P4Distribution Signal At Momentum Floor
Trip ifOn-balance volume trend turns positive and momentum score rises above 5.5 for 2 consecutive months.