Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
CCEC · Why this verdict
Why Capital Clean Energy Carriers C (CCEC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Capital Clean Energy Carriers shows 50% YoY growth, a forward P/E of 7.6x and strong momentum, but the cash flow is deeply negative against net income, leverage is high and only 2.9% upside remains to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Capital Clean Energy Carriers shows strong 50% YoY growth, with both revenue and earnings growth scored 10 out of 10. Growth breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth stay above 20% YoY over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterShipping growth tied to vessel deliveries and charter rates can reverse sharply, and the growth rank among peers is only moderate. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.6x with a PEG of 0.18, which the data calls attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth holds so the forward multiple stays under 10x. | →Stable |
| CounterMarine shipping earnings are cyclical, and a low multiple on peak earnings often signals a cycle top. | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at -760% of net income, alongside a leverage penalty from D/E of 2.0. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income turns positive above 0% as fleet capex winds down. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy vessel-building spending can keep cash flow negative for years while debt rises, straining the balance sheet. | ||
Momentum is strong (8.9), with the price above its 200-day average and a volume surge of 6.9x average on an up move. Momentum breakdown | The price holds above its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterVolume surges on breakouts in small caps often fade, and the stock is only 2.9% from the analyst target. | ||
The price of $21.70 is only 2.9% below the $22.33 analyst target, against 10.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.28. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised enough to restore at least 15% upside. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage (6 analysts) means the target could lag a fast-growing company, and a yield-trap warning on the dividend adds risk. | ||
Capital Clean Energy Carriers shows strong 50% YoY growth, with both revenue and earnings growth scored 10 out of 10.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth stay above 20% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterShipping growth tied to vessel deliveries and charter rates can reverse sharply, and the growth rank among peers is only moderate.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.6x with a PEG of 0.18, which the data calls attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth holds so the forward multiple stays under 10x.
CounterMarine shipping earnings are cyclical, and a low multiple on peak earnings often signals a cycle top.
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at -760% of net income, alongside a leverage penalty from D/E of 2.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income turns positive above 0% as fleet capex winds down.
CounterHeavy vessel-building spending can keep cash flow negative for years while debt rises, straining the balance sheet.
Momentum is strong (8.9), with the price above its 200-day average and a volume surge of 6.9x average on an up move.
Tripped↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterVolume surges on breakouts in small caps often fade, and the stock is only 2.9% from the analyst target.
The price of $21.70 is only 2.9% below the $22.33 analyst target, against 10.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.28.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised enough to restore at least 15% upside.
CounterLight analyst coverage (6 analysts) means the target could lag a fast-growing company, and a yield-trap warning on the dividend adds risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.4 |
| ROA | 2.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -760% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: -161 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 50% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.3 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 8.0 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 3.0 |
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.10
Upside
+7.7%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.3B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.10 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.0, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.7, Insider at 5.0, and Technical at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY from the current 50%.
- P2Cheap Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 12x from the current 7.6x.
- P3Negative Cash Conversion Leverage
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 3x from the current 2.0.
- P4Breakout Momentum VolumeTripped
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and momentum score drops below 4.5 from the current 8.9.
- P5Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifDownside to the stop level exceeds 15% while upside to the analyst target stays below 3%.