Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.4 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
CCC · Why this verdict
Why CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdi (CCC) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward P/E of 9.2x, a near-zero price-to-growth ratio, and analyst consensus implying over 60% upside embed a valuation discount that offers roughly 9-to-1 reward relative to downside risk at current prices. Price targets | Over 12 months, the stock closes a meaningful portion of the gap to the analyst consensus target of approximately $7.51 as the valuation discount attracts long-term buyers. | →Stable |
| CounterAn attractive multiple can persist in the absence of a catalyst; a small-cap in a confirmed downtrend with no identified edge may continue to de-rate before any valuation-driven recovery materializes. | ||
Free cash flow exceeds net income by more than six times, and a financial health reading of 7 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale indicate a business generating substantially more cash than reported earnings reflect, pointing to underlying quality that the headline income figure understates. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income ratio remains above 200% over the next four quarters, confirming that the elevated cash conversion is structural rather than a one-period anomaly. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF that far exceeds reported earnings can reflect favorable working-capital timing; if the gap compresses in future periods the cash quality case loses its primary support. | ||
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at nearly 10% over 30 days, and a death cross formation is in effect — together these signals constitute a confirmed downtrend that warrants patience over action. Bear case | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the slope of that average turns positive, providing the minimum technical signal needed to reassess the entry case. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum indicators — including an improving MACD and an RSI near 50 — suggest the downside pressure may be losing force, implying the confirmed downtrend could be nearer to its end than its midpoint. | ||
Implied volatility at 141% is far above typical equity market levels, signaling that option market participants expect large price swings and that the cost of entering or hedging a position here is elevated. Risk breakdown | Implied volatility compresses toward 60% over 12 months as the price structure stabilizes and market uncertainty around the name normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated implied volatility also reflects potential for an outsized move to the upside; in a recovery scenario the same conditions that raise entry risk could amplify gains significantly. | ||
A forward P/E of 9.2x, a near-zero price-to-growth ratio, and analyst consensus implying over 60% upside embed a valuation discount that offers roughly 9-to-1 reward relative to downside risk at current prices.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, the stock closes a meaningful portion of the gap to the analyst consensus target of approximately $7.51 as the valuation discount attracts long-term buyers.
CounterAn attractive multiple can persist in the absence of a catalyst; a small-cap in a confirmed downtrend with no identified edge may continue to de-rate before any valuation-driven recovery materializes.
Free cash flow exceeds net income by more than six times, and a financial health reading of 7 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale indicate a business generating substantially more cash than reported earnings reflect, pointing to underlying quality that the headline income figure understates.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income ratio remains above 200% over the next four quarters, confirming that the elevated cash conversion is structural rather than a one-period anomaly.
CounterFCF that far exceeds reported earnings can reflect favorable working-capital timing; if the gap compresses in future periods the cash quality case loses its primary support.
The stock sits below its 200-day moving average with that average declining at nearly 10% over 30 days, and a death cross formation is in effect — together these signals constitute a confirmed downtrend that warrants patience over action.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the slope of that average turns positive, providing the minimum technical signal needed to reassess the entry case.
CounterMomentum indicators — including an improving MACD and an RSI near 50 — suggest the downside pressure may be losing force, implying the confirmed downtrend could be nearer to its end than its midpoint.
Implied volatility at 141% is far above typical equity market levels, signaling that option market participants expect large price swings and that the cost of entering or hedging a position here is elevated.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility compresses toward 60% over 12 months as the price structure stabilizes and market uncertainty around the name normalizes.
CounterElevated implied volatility also reflects potential for an outsized move to the upside; in a recovery scenario the same conditions that raise entry risk could amplify gains significantly.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A forward P/E of 9.2x and over 60% analyst-implied upside suggest deep value in a software business with exceptional cash generation, but a confirmed technical downtrend marked by a 200-day moving average declining nearly 10% over 30 days and implied volatility at 141% make the setup too structurally impaired to act on without a price recovery signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.6 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.9 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 661% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 3.4 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
Technical
1.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 0.6 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.0 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 6.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.9 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.48
Upside
+37.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -47% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 8.1; weakest: Technical at 1.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.1, Value at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.4; the weakest are Technical at 1.6, Peer rank at 2.7, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.48 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Valuation Discount Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $5.25, reducing implied upside to less than 15% from the current level.
- P2Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 100% for 2 consecutive reported quarters.
- P3Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving-average slope rises above 0% and price holds above the 200-day moving average for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Elevated Implied Vol Signals Uncertainty
Trip ifImplied volatility compresses below 60% and remains there for 2 consecutive months.