Value
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
CCC · Why this verdict
Why CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdi (CCC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CCC Intelligent Solutions is a software company with a 9/9 Piotroski score, 400% cash conversion and a 3-quarter beat streak, but the price is 11.9% above the analyst target and momentum is weak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Free cash flow is 400% of net income, an excellent cash conversion rate, with a 9/9 Piotroski score and gross margin scored 10 out of 10. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income stays above 150% over the next four quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterNet income is depressed (net margin score 3.3, ROE score 1.3), so the high ratio partly reflects low reported earnings rather than outsized cash generation. | ||
CCC beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, averaging an 11.4% surprise. Earnings track record | EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPer-share amounts are tiny ($0.10-$0.13), so small dollar differences produce large percentage surprises, and one quarter was only in line. | ||
The price of $7.65 is above the $6.74 analyst target, with upside of -11.9% (target reached), against 15.0% downside to the stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, restoring positive upside. | →Stable |
| CounterA lagging target is not a ceiling, and an institutional accumulation trend could keep supporting the price. | ||
Momentum scores only 3.7, with falling on-balance volume showing distribution and a flat 200-day average slope. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 5.0 as volume turns to accumulation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInstitutions are accumulating and the price is still above its 200-day average, so the weak volume signal could be temporary. | ||
The stock is highly volatile, with beta and implied volatility both scored 10 for risk and short interest at 10%. Key risks | Volatility subsides and short interest falls below 8% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA stock this volatile can fall sharply on any growth disappointment, and the 15.0% stop distance leaves little room. | ||
Free cash flow is 400% of net income, an excellent cash conversion rate, with a 9/9 Piotroski score and gross margin scored 10 out of 10.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income stays above 150% over the next four quarters.
CounterNet income is depressed (net margin score 3.3, ROE score 1.3), so the high ratio partly reflects low reported earnings rather than outsized cash generation.
CCC beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with no misses, averaging an 11.4% surprise.
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterPer-share amounts are tiny ($0.10-$0.13), so small dollar differences produce large percentage surprises, and one quarter was only in line.
The price of $7.65 is above the $6.74 analyst target, with upside of -11.9% (target reached), against 15.0% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, restoring positive upside.
CounterA lagging target is not a ceiling, and an institutional accumulation trend could keep supporting the price.
Momentum scores only 3.7, with falling on-balance volume showing distribution and a flat 200-day average slope.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 5.0 as volume turns to accumulation.
CounterInstitutions are accumulating and the price is still above its 200-day average, so the weak volume signal could be temporary.
The stock is highly volatile, with beta and implied volatility both scored 10 for risk and short interest at 10%.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Volatility subsides and short interest falls below 8% over the next 12 months.
CounterA stock this volatile can fall sharply on any growth disappointment, and the 15.0% stop distance leaves little room.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.3 |
| ROA | 2.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.8 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 400% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 9.1 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=2)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 3.6 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.8 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.5 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 80%
- ▸Above max pain $1
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -34.4% (30d)
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:112d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.81
Upside
-12.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.81 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Quality at 6.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.3, Technical at 3.9, and Sentiment at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.81 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 400%.
- P2Steady Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifDownside to the stop level exceeds 20% while the price stays more than 10% above the analyst target.
- P4Weak Momentum Distribution
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 from the current 3.7.
- P5High Volatility Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 15% from the current 10%.