Value
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.10
- ▸Attractively valued
CCB · Why this verdict
Why Coastal Financial (CCB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Coastal Financial is a cheap regional bank (forward P/E 8.6x, 64% drawdown) with notable insider buying, but four straight earnings misses, quality below the floor (2.3) and 81% Puget Sound exposure leave little margin of safety.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Coastal Financial trades at a forward P/E of 8.6x with a PEG of 0.10, which the data calls attractively valued after a 64% drawdown. Valuation breakdown | Earnings stabilize so the low multiple converts into a price recovery over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG on depressed earnings can mislead, and four straight misses show the earnings base is still deteriorating. | ||
Coastal Financial missed EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, including a $2.76 per share loss against a $1.01 estimate in the July quarter. Miss count | EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe latest miss was a smaller 4.98%, which could signal the large one-off charge is behind the bank. | ||
About 81% of exposure sits in the Puget Sound region, with 1 high and 3 medium concentration risks flagged in the annual report risk factors. Bear case | Regional credit conditions stay stable and loan losses remain contained. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA regional economic shock would hit the entire loan book at once, with no geographic offset. | ||
Insiders bought $1,115,844, or 0.169% of market cap, a notable buying signal after the sharp drawdown. Insider breakdown | Insider buying continues and the price stabilizes above the 52-week low region. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day average falling 13.7% per 30 days, so insiders may be buying too early. | ||
The price of $43.29 is only 0.1% below the $43.35 analyst target, against 9.4% downside to the stop, leaving almost no upside. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised enough to restore at least 15% upside as earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage (4 analysts) means the target may be stale, and a recovery could quickly lift it. | ||
Coastal Financial trades at a forward P/E of 8.6x with a PEG of 0.10, which the data calls attractively valued after a 64% drawdown.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings stabilize so the low multiple converts into a price recovery over 12 months.
CounterA very low PEG on depressed earnings can mislead, and four straight misses show the earnings base is still deteriorating.
Coastal Financial missed EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, including a $2.76 per share loss against a $1.01 estimate in the July quarter.
↑ImprovingMiss count
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe latest miss was a smaller 4.98%, which could signal the large one-off charge is behind the bank.
About 81% of exposure sits in the Puget Sound region, with 1 high and 3 medium concentration risks flagged in the annual report risk factors.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Regional credit conditions stay stable and loan losses remain contained.
CounterA regional economic shock would hit the entire loan book at once, with no geographic offset.
Insiders bought $1,115,844, or 0.169% of market cap, a notable buying signal after the sharp drawdown.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider buying continues and the price stabilizes above the 52-week low region.
CounterThe stock is in a confirmed downtrend with the 200-day average falling 13.7% per 30 days, so insiders may be buying too early.
The price of $43.29 is only 0.1% below the $43.35 analyst target, against 9.4% downside to the stop, leaving almost no upside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised enough to restore at least 15% upside as earnings stabilize.
CounterLight analyst coverage (4 analysts) means the target may be stale, and a recovery could quickly lift it.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 7.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.8 |
| EPS growth | 2.2 |
Momentum
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -13.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 8.0 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 6.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider buying — $895,844 (0.136% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.1 |
| quality rank | 0.1 |
| growth rank | 6.5 |
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.7 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 5.5 |
| volatility | 1.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 8.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 20.29
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.7>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.21
Upside
-2.2%
Downside
10.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -62% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.2=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of -0.21.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Insider at 7.4, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Quality at 2.3, Technical at 2.7, and Catalyst at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 12x from the current 8.6x.
- P2Four Straight Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P3Single Region Concentration
Trip ifPuget Sound exposure exceeds 90% from the current 81.0%.
- P4Notable Insider Buying
Trip ifInsider net buying drops to $0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Analyst Target Reached
Trip ifDownside to the stop level exceeds 15% while upside to the analyst target stays below 2%.