Value
7.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 5.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Attractively valued
CBLL · Why this verdict
Why CeriBell (CBLL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CeriBell shows a strong technical breakout, robust growth, and a perfect earnings beat streak, but cash burn keeps quality below the engine's floor and heavy insider selling has tripped the insider gate, arguing for caution despite the momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company is cash-burning at -31% of revenue and fails the engine's Rule of 40 test (score of -2), keeping the quality score at 3.2, just below the 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | Rule of 40 score should turn positive and free cash flow burn should narrow toward breakeven over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNewly commercial medical device companies often run negative free cash flow while scaling salesforce and manufacturing, so a single period's burn rate doesn't necessarily indicate a structural quality problem. | ||
The stock is in a technical breakout -- above all major moving averages with a golden cross -- pushing the momentum score to 6.8, well above the engine's 5.5 threshold. Momentum breakdown | The stock should hold above its 200-day moving average and momentum score should stay above 5.5 over the next 2 quarters if the breakout is durable. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume during the breakout suggests the advance isn't backed by strong buying conviction, raising the odds of a failed breakout. | ||
Insiders sold $2,772,296 (0.374% of market cap) across 19 transactions in the past 90 days with zero buys, a heavy selling severity that failed the engine's insider gate. Insider | Insider selling should slow materially, dropping below 10 transactions per quarter, if this was a one-time liquidity event rather than a signal of eroding confidence. | →Stable |
| CounterBroad-based selling across many small transactions more likely reflects pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) among a large employee base after a lockup expiration than a coordinated bearish signal. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of 7.9%, a perfect beat streak the engine flags as a positive catalyst. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should extend through the next 2 reported quarters with average surprise staying positive. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect beat streak against consistently conservative estimates for a small, newly-public device maker may just reflect management consistently under-promising and over-delivering rather than genuine outperformance. | ||
The company is cash-burning at -31% of revenue and fails the engine's Rule of 40 test (score of -2), keeping the quality score at 3.2, just below the 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Rule of 40 score should turn positive and free cash flow burn should narrow toward breakeven over the next 12 months.
CounterNewly commercial medical device companies often run negative free cash flow while scaling salesforce and manufacturing, so a single period's burn rate doesn't necessarily indicate a structural quality problem.
The stock is in a technical breakout -- above all major moving averages with a golden cross -- pushing the momentum score to 6.8, well above the engine's 5.5 threshold.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should hold above its 200-day moving average and momentum score should stay above 5.5 over the next 2 quarters if the breakout is durable.
CounterFalling on-balance volume during the breakout suggests the advance isn't backed by strong buying conviction, raising the odds of a failed breakout.
Insiders sold $2,772,296 (0.374% of market cap) across 19 transactions in the past 90 days with zero buys, a heavy selling severity that failed the engine's insider gate.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling should slow materially, dropping below 10 transactions per quarter, if this was a one-time liquidity event rather than a signal of eroding confidence.
CounterBroad-based selling across many small transactions more likely reflects pre-scheduled selling plans (Rule 10b5-1) among a large employee base after a lockup expiration than a coordinated bearish signal.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 reported quarters, with an average surprise of 7.9%, a perfect beat streak the engine flags as a positive catalyst.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend through the next 2 reported quarters with average surprise staying positive.
CounterA perfect beat streak against consistently conservative estimates for a small, newly-public device maker may just reflect management consistently under-promising and over-delivering rather than genuine outperformance.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -31% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: -2 (fail)
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.8 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.4 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 17, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 65%
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,874,583 (0.450% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 0.8 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 3.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 1.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.4 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.9>=1.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:18d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.9<4.5
- INSIDER:0.45%=HEAVY
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.86
Upside
+43.5%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 18d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.9<4.5 outcome against Growth at 9.8 and asymmetric R:R of 4.86.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Value at 7.7, and Sentiment at 7.7; the weakest are Momentum at 1.9, Quality at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cash Burn Below Quality Floor
Trip ifRule of 40 score rises above 20.
- P2Breakout Momentum With GrowthTripped
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 while price closes below the 200-day moving average.
- P3Heavy Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $5,000,000 over the next 90 days.
- P4Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% in 2 of its next 4 reported quarters.