Caterpillar (CAT) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $8.17
- Estimate
- $6.20
- Surprise
- +31.8%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.8 → 5.8/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Caterpillar (CAT) beat the $6.20 estimate with adjusted EPS of $8.17 — a large 31.8% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.8/10) to Sell at 5.8/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates CAT Sell at 6.2/10.
4 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +31.8% surprise compares with a +17.5% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-10-29.
What supports the rating
- Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
- Strong growth profile
What argues against it
- Thin upside margin: 3.9%
- Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
- Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $845.42
- Price target
- $878.05
- Stop
- $803.96
- Upside to target
- +3.9%
- Reward-to-risk
- 0.5:1
The stock trades at 36.4× trailing but 26.1× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 74 — a level conventionally read as overbought; gains at these levels often lean on momentum.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-05 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
CAT at TrendMatrix's latest read
Industrial quarters are order-book stories — backlog and book-to-bill color how the market reads the reported number.
- Industry
- Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
- Market cap
- $388.62B
- P/E (fwd)
- 26.1
- P/E (ttm)
- 36.4
- 52-week range
- $483.55–$1073.46
- Off 52-week high
- 21.2%
- RSI (14)
- 74
- Volume vs avg
- 1.03×
- Score today
- 6.2/10