Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 4.2 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.9x
- ▸PEG: 2.32
CART · Why this verdict
Why Maplebear (CART) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The online grocery delivery platform combines high-quality fundamentals — 129% free cash flow conversion and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — with strong technical momentum; however, two earnings misses in four quarters and a reward-to-risk ratio below 1.0 argue for patience rather than new capital deployment at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business converts 129% of net income into free cash flow and scores a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — indicating a franchise that generates meaningfully more real cash than reported earnings suggest, a hallmark of durable financial quality. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 110% of net income and operating margin continues to expand for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next year. | →Stable |
| CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 introduces a leverage penalty that weighs on the quality assessment; if cash generation softens, the higher debt load limits flexibility and amplifies downside. | ||
The earnings growth profile is at the high end of the range, suggesting profitability is expanding at a pace that could sustain a premium multiple — but the most recent quarter was a miss of -6.38% against consensus, and the quarter two periods prior missed by -34.73%, raising questions about whether management guidance is reliable. Components | The next two earnings releases both beat consensus by at least 5%, confirming that profitability growth is durable rather than erratic. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two beats in the recent four-quarter window (February 2026 at +5.28%, August 2025 at +6.9%) show the company can deliver; if guidance is reset conservatively after the recent miss, a return to beating estimates is plausible. | ||
A golden cross, rising on-balance volume, RSI at 57, and bullish MACD together signal that buying pressure is broadening across the shareholder base in a technically constructive configuration. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day moving average slope remains positive and the stock holds above it for at least 3 consecutive months, confirming the breakout has durability. | →Stable |
| CounterThe moving average slope is currently flat rather than steeply rising, and technical setups can reverse quickly if the next earnings release disappoints again — particularly given 11% short interest that could add selling pressure on a miss. | ||
With only 6.7% headroom to the price target and 8.5% downside to the stop level, the reward-to-risk ratio of 0.79 falls well short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 needed to justify new capital — the setup favors waiting for a better entry or a catalyst that expands upside. Warnings | If this concern resolves, analysts should raise their consensus price target to at least $48.00 within one quarter, restoring upside above 13% and a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPositive news sentiment and strong technical momentum suggest a near-term re-rating is plausible; if the company beats estimates meaningfully next quarter, the target may be revised upward before a pullback creates a better entry. | ||
The business converts 129% of net income into free cash flow and scores a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — indicating a franchise that generates meaningfully more real cash than reported earnings suggest, a hallmark of durable financial quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 110% of net income and operating margin continues to expand for at least 2 consecutive quarters over the next year.
CounterA debt-to-equity ratio of 1.3 introduces a leverage penalty that weighs on the quality assessment; if cash generation softens, the higher debt load limits flexibility and amplifies downside.
The earnings growth profile is at the high end of the range, suggesting profitability is expanding at a pace that could sustain a premium multiple — but the most recent quarter was a miss of -6.38% against consensus, and the quarter two periods prior missed by -34.73%, raising questions about whether management guidance is reliable.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- The next two earnings releases both beat consensus by at least 5%, confirming that profitability growth is durable rather than erratic.
CounterThe two beats in the recent four-quarter window (February 2026 at +5.28%, August 2025 at +6.9%) show the company can deliver; if guidance is reset conservatively after the recent miss, a return to beating estimates is plausible.
A golden cross, rising on-balance volume, RSI at 57, and bullish MACD together signal that buying pressure is broadening across the shareholder base in a technically constructive configuration.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope remains positive and the stock holds above it for at least 3 consecutive months, confirming the breakout has durability.
CounterThe moving average slope is currently flat rather than steeply rising, and technical setups can reverse quickly if the next earnings release disappoints again — particularly given 11% short interest that could add selling pressure on a miss.
With only 6.7% headroom to the price target and 8.5% downside to the stop level, the reward-to-risk ratio of 0.79 falls well short of the minimum 1.5-to-1 needed to justify new capital — the setup favors waiting for a better entry or a catalyst that expands upside.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- If this concern resolves, analysts should raise their consensus price target to at least $48.00 within one quarter, restoring upside above 13% and a reward-to-risk ratio above 1.5-to-1.
CounterPositive news sentiment and strong technical momentum suggest a near-term re-rating is plausible; if the company beats estimates meaningfully next quarter, the target may be revised upward before a pullback creates a better entry.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 6.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 7.2 |
| Net margin | 6.3 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 129% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.4 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 24)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $9,335,035 (0.094% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.4 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 1.5 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.18
Upside
+8.7%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.6) with weak momentum (2.7)
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Growth at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.18.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.0, Technical at 7.7, and Quality at 7.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.7, Catalyst at 3.3, and Insider at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 90% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Growth Mixed Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and stays there for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P4Thin Risk Reward At Current Price
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $48.00, restoring upside greater than 13% from the current price of $42.18.