Value
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.9x
CAPL · Why this verdict
Why CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CAPL sits just below the engine's quality floor despite strong cash conversion and a technical breakout, with a flagged yield-trap warning the central risk to the distribution thesis.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The quality score of 3.5 sits just below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, despite excellent cash conversion of 167% of free cash flow to net income, reflecting a lack of competitive moat as the key drag. Bear case | Quality score should climb above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months given the already-strong cash conversion. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAs an MLP fuel distributor, the business model is inherently commodity-like with limited moat by nature, so this score may persistently sit near the floor regardless of near-term operational improvement. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all three of its last reported quarters, with an outsized average surprise driven by a low earnings base. Earnings | The beat streak should continue at the 2026-08-05 report. | →Stable |
| CounterExtremely large percentage surprises, over 100%, usually reflect a very small estimate base rather than genuine outperformance, making the streak less meaningful than it appears. | ||
The engine flags a yield-trap warning, indicating the distribution yield may be unsustainably high relative to underlying cash flow and business quality. Catalyst breakdown | The distribution should be maintained without a cut, and the yield-trap flag should clear over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMLP distributions are frequently maintained even through periods of relatively weaker underlying quality due to contractual and tax-driven payout policies, so the flag alone doesn't guarantee a cut. | ||
The stock is in a technical breakout, a golden cross with price above all major moving averages, RSI at 52, and bullish MACD, even though the engine's asymmetry gate shows fully exhausted upside. Chart pattern detection | Price should extend and hold the breakout over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith modeled upside already at 0% per the asymmetry gate, this breakout may already be fully priced in, leaving little room for further technical gains. | ||
The quality score of 3.5 sits just below the engine's 4.0 minimum floor, despite excellent cash conversion of 167% of free cash flow to net income, reflecting a lack of competitive moat as the key drag.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score should climb above the 4.0 floor over the next 12 months given the already-strong cash conversion.
CounterAs an MLP fuel distributor, the business model is inherently commodity-like with limited moat by nature, so this score may persistently sit near the floor regardless of near-term operational improvement.
The company has beaten consensus estimates in all three of its last reported quarters, with an outsized average surprise driven by a low earnings base.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue at the 2026-08-05 report.
CounterExtremely large percentage surprises, over 100%, usually reflect a very small estimate base rather than genuine outperformance, making the streak less meaningful than it appears.
The engine flags a yield-trap warning, indicating the distribution yield may be unsustainably high relative to underlying cash flow and business quality.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The distribution should be maintained without a cut, and the yield-trap flag should clear over the next 12 months.
CounterMLP distributions are frequently maintained even through periods of relatively weaker underlying quality due to contractual and tax-driven payout policies, so the flag alone doesn't guarantee a cut.
The stock is in a technical breakout, a golden cross with price above all major moving averages, RSI at 52, and bullish MACD, even though the engine's asymmetry gate shows fully exhausted upside.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should extend and hold the breakout over the next 12 months.
CounterWith modeled upside already at 0% per the asymmetry gate, this breakout may already be fully priced in, leaving little room for further technical gains.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 3.0 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 167% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.1 |
| MACD | 2.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 29)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 4.4 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 9.6 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 6.7 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.5<4.5
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 13d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.5<4.5 outcome against Technical at 8.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Growth at 2.0, Momentum at 3.5, and Quality at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Near Quality Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) in the next reported quarter.
- P3Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifThe distribution per unit is cut by more than 10% within the next 12 months.
- P4Breakout Technical Setup
Trip ifStock price falls below its 200-day moving average by more than 5%.